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WTNT43 KNHC 270851
TCDAT3
HURRICANE MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
500 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
AN ONGOING AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN
MEASURING PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER WINDS AND LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURES
DURING EACH OF ITS PASSES THROUGH MELISSA'S EYE. ON THE THIRD AND
FINAL PASS, THE CREW MEASURED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 154 KT AND
A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 917 MB. THIS FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REDUCES TO
ABOUT 140 KT, MAKING MELISSA A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. THE
HURRICANE'S EYE IS 10 N MI WIDE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES
CELSIUS, WHILE THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION HAS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -86 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MELISSA APPEARS TO BE GAINING SOME LATITUDE AGAIN, BUT THE 12-HOUR
AVERAGE MOTION IS WESTWARD (275 DEGREES) AT 3 KT. A PAINSTAKINGLY
SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, AND MELISSA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA TUESDAY MORNING AND EMERGE OFF THE NORTH
COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS THEN EXPECTED TO CAUSE MELISSA TO
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE, CROSSING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, AND THEN
REACHING THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PART OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WHILE MELISSA IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED A BIT WESTWARD, FOLLOWING THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND
EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS WHILE MELISSA IS SOUTH OF JAMAICA OVER WATERS OF HIGH OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE
TO INTERNAL DYNAMICS RELATED TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS, WHICH ARE
GENERALLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. THERE'S REALLY NO PRACTICAL
DIFFERENCE IN MELISSA MAKING LANDFALL IN JAMAICA AT CATEGORY 4 OR 5
INTENSITY, SINCE BOTH CATEGORIES CAN PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE. IN ADDITION, WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF JAMAICA ARE LIKELY
TO BE HIGHER THAN THE WINDS AT SEA LEVEL, AND ARE LIKELY TO ADD TO
THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE SITUATION. ALTHOUGH INTERACTION WITH
JAMAICA WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAKENING, MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE, AND WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND BE NEAR BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FLATLINING OF THE INTENSITY WHILE MELISSA
IS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN BUMPED UP DURING THAT TIME ACCORDINGLY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JAMAICA: DO NOT VENTURE OUT OF YOUR SAFE SHELTER. CATASTROPHIC
AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES ARE
LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WILL BEGIN BY THIS EVENING, LEADING TO EXTENSIVE
INFRASTRUCTURAL DAMAGE, LONG-LASTING POWER AND COMMUNICATION
OUTAGES, AND ISOLATED COMMUNITIES. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY.
2. HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: CATASTROPHIC AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN HAITI, EXTENSIVE INFRASTRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND
ISOLATION OF COMMUNITIES IS LIKELY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
3. EASTERN CUBA: HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LIFE-THREATENING AND
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING TODAY. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
4. SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS: HURRICANE CONDITIONS,
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL OFFICIALS
AND BE SURE TO HAVE PREPARATIONS COMPLETE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 16.4N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.1W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.3N 78.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 18.5N 77.3W 115 KT 130 MPH...NORTH COAST OF JAMAICA
48H 29/0600Z 20.1N 76.0W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER SE CUBA
60H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR SE BAHAMAS
72H 30/0600Z 24.7N 72.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 32.3N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 01/0600Z 41.4N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECASTER BERG/HAGEN
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