103
WTPZ43 KNHC 271435
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
800 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED, WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR CAUSING CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KT,
THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE TURNED BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AT AN
ESTIMATED MOTION OF 275/6 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE SHALLOW, AND STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
TOWARDS THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTION.
SONIA IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, WITH COOLING SSTS, AND DRIER AIR
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND, AND MODEL SIMULATED IR SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION DIMINISHING
BY TUESDAY. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THESE TRENDS WITH THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 36 H. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH IN TWO TO THREE DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 13.8N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 13.9N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 14.1N 123.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 14.2N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/1200Z 14.2N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0000Z 14.0N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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