622
WTPZ43 KNHC 272102
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
200 PM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
SONIA IS PRODUCING ONLY INTERMITTENT CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. PREVIOUS CONVECTION THAT WAS DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE
CENTER HAS DISSIPATED. LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED AND RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT FROM SAB, TAFB AND UW-CIMSS.
USING THESE ESTIMATES AND THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE STORM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 275/6 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND IS
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR THE PREVIOUS, ONLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT TOWARDS THE
HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTIONS.
MODERATE WIND SHEAR, AND A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS HAVE TAKEN
THEIR TOLL ON SONIA TODAY. THE GFS MODEL SIMULATED IR SATELLITE
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT PRODUCE ANYMORE CONVECTION, WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWS A BURST OCCURING LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW IN 24 H, ALTHOUGH THAT COULD OCCUR SOONER IF ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TONIGHT.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH IN ABOUT
TWO TO THREE DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 14.1N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 14.2N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 14.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0600Z 14.7N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/1800Z 14.6N 127.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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