944
WTPZ43 KNHC 280231
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
800 PM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF SONIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5/35 KT AND 2.0/30 KT,
RESPECTIVELY, WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED
FROM 31 TO 41 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA, ALONG WITH AN EARLIER
ASCAT METOP-C PASS THAT SAMPLED A BROAD AREA OF 30-33 KT WINDS WHEN
CONVECTION WAS ABSENT, SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT
35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
SONIA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS THE
CIRCULATION BECOMES SHALLOWER AND THE SYSTEM IS STEERED ALONG BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION OBSERVED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, AND IT LIES CLOSE TO THE
GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
SONIA’S DAYS APPEAR TO BE NUMBERED, AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS AFFECTED
BY STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR—CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 25 KT BY UW-CIMSS.
THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE SONIA MOVES OVER GRADUALLY COOLING WATERS AND INTO A DRIER
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND, WITH THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE LATEST CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 14.5N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 14.7N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 14.9N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 15.0N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 14.9N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page