619
WTNT43 KNHC 280857
TCDAT3
HURRICANE MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
MELISSA HAS A CIRCULAR, 10-N-MI-WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC
RING OF VERY INTENSE CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEG
C. RADAR DATA FROM JAMAICA SUGGESTS THAT A SECONDARY OUTER EYEWALL
MAY HAVE FORMED, WHICH COULD SIGNAL THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE IS UNDERWAY. THE LAST COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT CENTER FIXES BY THE
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS REVEALED 700-MB HEIGHT FALLS WITHIN THE
EYE, AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO
AROUND 901 MB. A STANDARD REDUCTION OF THE PEAK 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS FROM THAT MISSION (165 KT) SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
150 KT. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING ACROSS JAMAICA, WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLAND. NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE AGAIN THIS MORNING.
MELISSA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD (025/4 KT). OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS STEERING FLOW WILL BRING THE CORE OF MELISSA
ACROSS JAMAICA TODAY, OVER EASTERN CUBA EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN OR CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THEN, THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. OVERALL, THE NEAR-TERM NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT 72-120 H, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION BASED ON THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AIDS AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
NEAR-TERM INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY INTERNAL DYNAMIC PROCESSES LIKE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES. REGARDLESS, MELISSA WILL REACH JAMAICA AS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 H. WHILE LAND
INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME
WEAKENING, MELISSA IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AS A STRONG HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO IMPACT MELISSA LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE
HURRICANE ACCELERATES TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES. AS A RESULT, THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO HAVE A BROADER AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
WHEN IT PASSES NEAR BERMUDA LATER THIS WEEK. SOME MINOR UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE PERIOD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HCCA
AND GDMI AIDS. MELISSA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY 96 H.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JAMAICA: REMAIN SHELTERED! CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING,
LANDSLIDES, AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY,
CAUSING WIDESPREAD INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE, POWER AND COMMUNICATION
OUTAGES, AND ISOLATED COMMUNITIES. TOTAL STRUCTURAL FAILURE IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF MELISSA’S CENTER. ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. FAILURE TO ACT MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS
OF LIFE.
2. HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING
AND LANDSLIDES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN HAITI,
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND ISOLATION OF COMMUNITIES IS LIKELY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
3. EASTERN CUBA: HEAVY RAINFALL, FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ARE
EXPECTED SOON. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS NOW.
4. SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS:
HURRICANE CONDITIONS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. COMPLETE PREPARATIONS BY TONIGHT AND
FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIAL GUIDANCE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, HEAVY
RAINS, AND SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED IN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 17.2N 78.3W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 18.2N 77.7W 145 KT 165 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0600Z 19.9N 76.5W 120 KT 140 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 29/1800Z 21.9N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 24.6N 73.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 28.1N 70.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 32.4N 65.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 43.0N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z 51.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECASTER REINHART
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