521
WTPZ43 KNHC 281435
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SONIA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THERE
IS LITTLE BANDING EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT, WHICH IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.5
FROM TAFB. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE SONIA MOVES OVER GRADUALLY
DECREASING SSTS AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THESE
NEGATIVE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WEAKENING AND
DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE CIRCULATION IS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 48
HOURS, THEREFORE DISSIPATION IS SHOWN AT THAT TIME.
SONIA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290 DEGREES, AT 7 KT. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST
GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE SIMPLE CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 15.1N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 15.2N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 15.3N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 30/0000Z 15.1N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
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