798
WTNT43 KNHC 281452
TCDAT3
HURRICANE MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOW THAT MELISSA HAS STRENGTHENED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE INSIDE THE 15 N MI WIDE EYE HAS FALLEN TO NEAR
892 MB, AND THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 172 KT
AT 700 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 160 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 025/8. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, WITH THE CENTER
MAKING LANDFALL IN JAMAICA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND REACHING
EASTERN CUBA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT, A FASTER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY AND NEAR BERMUDA
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER PASSING BERMUDA THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 H
AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT TIME.
MELISSA SHOULD WEAKEN OVER JAMAICA AS THE INNER CORE GETS DISRUPTED
BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN
MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES EASTERN CUBA.
AFTER LEAVING CUBA, MELISSA SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR THAT SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING,
ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE SHOULD STILL BE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
PASSES NEAR BERMUDA. BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE, MELISSA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC BY 96 H.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JAMAICA: THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION! TAKE COVER NOW! CATASTROPHIC WINDS WITH TOTAL
STRUCTURAL FAILURE ARE LIKLELY NEAR THE PATH OF MELISSA’S CENTER.
CATSTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND CAUSING WIDESPREAD
INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE, POWER AND COMMUNICATION OUTAGES, AND ISOLATED
COMMUNITIES. ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND DAMAGING WAVES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
2. HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING
AND LANDSLIDES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN HAITI,
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND ISOLATION OF COMMUNITIES IS LIKELY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
3. EASTERN CUBA: HEAVY RAINFALL, FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ARE
EXPECTED SOON. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS NOW.
4. SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS:
HURRICANE CONDITIONS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. COMPLETE PREPARATIONS BY TONIGHT AND
FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIAL GUIDANCE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, HEAVY
RAINS, AND SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED IN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 17.9N 77.9W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 19.0N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 21.0N 75.7W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 23.4N 74.1W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 30/1200Z 26.6N 71.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 30.8N 67.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 35.9N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 45.9N 47.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1200Z 52.8N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECASTER BEVEN
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