330
WTPZ43 KNHC 290241
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SONIA APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
SHEAR ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS TO BE NEAR 26 KT, WHILE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS BELOW 26C AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 50 PERCENT. DEEP CONVECTION WAS SHEARED AWAY
FROM THE CENTER AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 1800 UTC AND HAS NOT
RETURNED, INDICATING THAT SONIA’S TIME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
NEARLY OVER. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5/35 KT AND 2.0/30 KT,
RESPECTIVELY, WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 28
TO 39 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR
THIS ADVISORY IS HELD AT, PERHAPS A GENEROUS, 35 KT.
SONIA IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD, OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REPRESENTS A
BLEND OF THE HCCA, GDMI, AND FSSE TRACK AIDS.
STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WHILE SONIA REMAINS OVER COOL WATERS OF 25–26C AND WITHIN DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR BELOW 50 PERCENT. AS A RESULT, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED, AND SONIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW LATER TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSELY ALIGNED
WITH THE VARIOUS INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 15.4N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 15.4N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0000Z 15.2N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1200Z 14.8N 131.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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