051
WTNT43 KNHC 290256
TCDAT3
HURRICANE MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
MELISSA'S PASSAGE OVER JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSED A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WEAKENING. THE PRESSURE ROSE NEARLY 60 MB,
AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS DECREASED BY ABOUT 50 KT BASED ON DATA
COLLECTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, NOW THAT THE CORE IS PULLING AWAY FROM JAMAICA, SATELLITE
IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA SHOW THAT THE EYE IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED AGAIN AND THE EYEWALL IS GAINING SYMMETRY. MELISSA APPEARS
TO BE ON A STRENGTHENING TREND, AND BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE
EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES,
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 115 KT. THE INNER CORE APPEARS
LARGER THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.
THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT
040/8 KT. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE
MELISSA TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE CORE OF MELISSA OVER EASTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT, AND THEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. MELISSA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY OF
BERMUDA LATE THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, BUT THERE
IS SOME ALONG-TRACK (TIMING) SPREAD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR A BLEND OF THE HCCA AND GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT REACHES CUBA
IN A FEW HOURS, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL THERE AS A VERY
DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER MELISSA MOVES INLAND, THE PASSAGE
OVER THE RUGGED ISLAND COMBINED WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID, MELISSA IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND NEAR BERMUDA. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MELISSA SHOULD
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 72 HOURS WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO
HAVE CROSSED THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM, BASED ON
RECENT DATA TRENDS, BUT GENERALLY NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE FROM 36 TO 120 H.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JAMAICA: ALTHOUGH MELISSA IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND,
DEADLY HAZARDS REMAIN INCLUDING DOWNED POWER LINES AND FLOODED
AREAS. ENSURE GENERATORS ARE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND PLACED OUTSIDE
AT LEAST 20 FEET AWAY FROM DOORS, WINDOWS, AND GARAGES TO AVOID
CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. IF YOU ARE CLEANING UP STORM DAMAGE, BE
CAREFUL WHEN USING CHAINSAWS AND POWER TOOLS, AND DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION.
2. HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
LANDSLIDES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN
HAITI, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND ISOLATION OF COMMUNITIES IS LIKELY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.
3. EASTERN CUBA: LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING AND
LANDSLIDES, AND EXTREMELY DAMAGING HURRICANE WINDS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.
4. SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS:
HURRICANE CONDITIONS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. COMPLETE PREPARATIONS BY TONIGHT AND
FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIAL GUIDANCE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, HEAVY
RAINS, AND SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED IN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
5. BERMUDA: HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN
BERMUDA BEGINNING THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 19.3N 76.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 20.8N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 23.4N 74.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 26.9N 71.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 31.5N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 37.1N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 43.2N 54.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0000Z 52.3N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0000Z 57.2N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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