366
WTNT33 KNHC 290551
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MELISSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
200 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
...MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 76.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA, SANTIAGO DE CUBA, GUANTANAMO,
HOLGUIN, AND LAS TUNAS
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RESIDENTS IN CUBA SHOULD SEEK
SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. IN THE BAHAMAS, PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST. MELISSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A FASTER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN
CUBA THROUGH THIS MORNING, MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN OR CENTRAL
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY, AND APPROACH BERMUDA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MELISSA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL
HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND PASSES NEAR
BERMUDA.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES (315 KM). LEEWARD POINT FIELD IN GUANTANAMO BAY, CUBA,
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH (61 KM/H) AND A GUST OF
69 MPH (111 KM/H).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER DROPSONDE DATA IS 952 MB (28.12 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR MELISSA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT43 KNHC.
WIND: DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
JAMAICA, BUT RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN A SAFE SHELTER UNTIL
SUNRISE.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA IN CUBA
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN HAITI THROUGH TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL: MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS JAMAICA, WHERE STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN 12 TO 24
INCHES. ISOLATED AREAS NEAR 30 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ONGOING CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
FOR EASTERN CUBA, STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 10 TO 20 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 25 INCHES EXPECTED
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THIS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING AND
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING WITH NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING. FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, WITH STORM TOTAL LOCAL MAXIMA OF 40 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
MELISSA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EARLY TODAY. PEAK STORM SURGE HEIGHTS
COULD REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS, NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL. THIS STORM SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA.
STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND IS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY, AND 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMALLY DRY
GROUND IS POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TODAY.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY MELISSA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. THESE SWELLS WILL REACH THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND BERMUDA LATER THIS WEEK.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.
FORECASTER REINHART
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