699
WTNT33 KNHC 291459 CCA
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 33...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
CORRECTED SURGE TOTALS FOR THE BAHAMAS
..MELISSA NOW OFFSHORE OF EAST CUBA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
...DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE FOR CUBA, BAHAMAS, AND A
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 75.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA, SANTIAGO DE CUBA, GUANTANAMO,
HOLGUIN, AND LAS TUNAS
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RESIDENTS IN CUBA SHOULD REMAIN
SHELTERED. IN THE BAHAMAS, PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE COMPLETED AND RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN SHELTERED. IN
BERMUDA PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY AND BE COMPLETED BEFORE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14
MPH (22 KM/H). A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF MELISSA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE OF EASTERN CUBA THIS MORNING, MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN OR CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY, AND PASS NEAR OR
TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TOMORROW
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THEREAFTER.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AIRCRAFT
DROPSONDE DATA IS 974 MB (28.76 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR MELISSA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT43 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN
CUBA BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HAITI TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLIER ON
THURSDAY.
RAINFALL: FOR EASTERN CUBA, HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING,
TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 10 TO 20
INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 25 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY
CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING WITH NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS JAMAICA. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO 12 TO 24
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF 30 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. ONGOING CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH STORM TOTAL LOCAL MAXIMA OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
MELISSA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY, AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TODAY.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY MELISSA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, AND NOW AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS, AND WILL SPREAD TOWARD BERMUDA LATER THIS WEEK,
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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