916
FNUS72 KNHC 310824
FWSNHC
SPOT FORECAST FOR AS MIA CG SAR RESPONSE...USCG AS MIAMI
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0400 EDT ON OCTOBER 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NWS
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
BRANCH AT (305)229-4425.
DISCUSSION
HURRICANE MELISSA IS WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 35.9N
64.0W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 36 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB. A COLD FRONT IS TO THE WSW OF MELISSA
FROM 31N70.5W TO 21.5N76.5W OR JUST TO THE W OF THE SPOT LOCATION.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF HISPANIOLA, A SURFACE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 58W AND 74W, INCLUDING NEAR
THE SPOT LOCATION. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PASSAGES AND
EXPOSED AREAS DUE TO SWELLS FROM MELISSA.
LATITUDE = 20.8557
LONGITUDE = -73.7801
FROM THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER:
FORECAST VALID 08Z (0400 EDT) 10/31/2025 - 12Z (0800 EDT)
11/01/2025
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY - BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE AFTER SUNSET. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
31/08Z-31/21Z: SCT-BKN035 TOP 090. WDLY SCT TSRA. CB TOP FL470.
WND NNW 5KT.
31/21Z-01/09Z: SCT025 BKN035 TOP 150. SCT TSRA. CB TOP FL500.
WND ENE 10-15G25KT.
01/09Z-01/12Z: SCT025 SCT080. ISOL TSRA. CB TOP FL450. WND E
10KT.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
SURFACE WINDS (KTS).NORTH WINDS UP TO 7 KNOTS.
SWELL HEIGHT........NORTHEAST SWELL 1 FEET.
WAVE HEIGHT.........3 FEET SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET LATE IN THE
MORNING, THEN BUILDING TO 3 FEET LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WAVE PERIOD.........11 SECONDS.
WAVE PERIOD.........11 SECONDS.
WIND WAVE...........2 FEET.
SEA SURFACE TEMP....84 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........83 83 44 44 44 44 44 44 48 48 48 48
WEATHER COV..... SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
TEMP............72 72 71 71 71 71 71 71 72 72 72 72
SFC WND DIR.....NW NW N N N N N N NE NE NE NE
SFC WND SPD KTS.7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7
SFC WND GST.....11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 11
SWELL DIRECTION.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
SWELL HGT (FT)..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
WAVE PERIOD (S).11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WIND WAVE (FT)..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
WAVE HEIGHT (FT)3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3
SST (F).........84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....81 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
SURFACE WINDS (KTS).NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 9 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT.
SWELL HEIGHT........NORTHEAST SWELL 1 FEET.
WAVE HEIGHT.........3 FEET.
WAVE PERIOD.........11 SECONDS.
WAVE PERIOD.........11 SECONDS.
WIND WAVE...........2 FEET.
SEA SURFACE TEMP....84 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........48 48 85 85 85 85 85 85 88 88 88 88
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
TEMP............72 72 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71
SFC WND DIR.....NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E E
SFC WND SPD KTS.7 7 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9
SFC WND GST.....11 11 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 13
SWELL DIRECTION.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
SWELL HGT (FT)..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
WAVE PERIOD (S).11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WIND WAVE (FT)..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
WAVE HEIGHT (FT)3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
SST (F).........84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
SURFACE WINDS (KTS).EAST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS.
SWELL HEIGHT........NORTHEAST SWELL 1 FEET.
WAVE HEIGHT.........3 FEET SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WAVE PERIOD.........11 SECONDS.
WAVE PERIOD.........11 SECONDS.
WIND WAVE...........2 FEET.
SEA SURFACE TEMP....84 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........88 88 75 75 75 75 75 75 52 52 52 52
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW
TSTM COV........ISO ISO
TEMP............71 71 72 72 72 72 72 72 73 73 73 73
SFC WND DIR.....E E E E E E E E E E E E
SFC WND SPD KTS.9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10
SFC WND GST.....13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14
SWELL DIRECTION.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
SWELL HGT (FT)..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
WAVE PERIOD (S).11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10
WIND WAVE (FT)..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
WAVE HEIGHT (FT)3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
SST (F).........84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84
FORECASTER...LEWITSKY/SPARKS
REQUESTED BY...LCDR LLOYD
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 2524629.4/NHC
.DELDT 10/31/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL TRAVIS.J.LEMKE@USCG.MIL,ALLYSON.D.HOLFINGER@USCG.MIL,FRANK.P.MINOPOLI@USCG.MIL,D07-SMB-ODOAIRSTAMIA@USCG.MIL,BRENDAN.R.SULLIVAN@USCG.MIL,RYAN.S.LLOYD@USCG.MIL,RACHEL.H.CARTER@USCG.MIL,LE.T.NELSON@USCG.MIL,JOHN.W.SCHULTZ@USCG.MIL, MICHAEL.D.BRIMBLECOM@USCG.MIL, CHRIS.LANDSEA@NOAA.GOV, JEFFREY.LEWITSKY@NOAA.GOV
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