413
WTNT43 KNHC 310847
TCDAT3
HURRICANE MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
500 AM AST FRI OCT 31 2025
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MELISSA IS QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
DECREASING SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL
WIND FIELDS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INTENSITY TO 80 KT THIS MORNING.
EARLIER ASCAT DATA SHOWED AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF MELISSA, WITH 50-KT WINDS THAT EXTENDED UP TO 140 N MI
FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. LARGE SWELLS FROM
MELISSA ARE SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, RESULTING
IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION.
MELISSA REMAINS IN A HIGHLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND WILL MOVE OVER
RAPIDLY COOLING SSTS WHILE COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF, THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST NOW SHOWS
MELISSA BECOMING A HURRICANE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 12 H,
THOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR AS SOON AS LATER THIS MORNING. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT MELISSA WILL
REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MELISSA IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD (040/36 KT) AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL
MELISSA WILL PASS NEAR, BUT TO THE SOUTH OF, THE AVALON PENINSULA OF
NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. LATER THIS WEEKEND, MELISSA IS FORECAST TO
TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE INTERACTING WITH A HIGHER-LATITUDE,
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
PREDICTION REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, GENERALLY
FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. BERMUDA: GUSTY WINDS OVER BERMUDA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.
2. POST-STORM SAFETY: FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND AVOID
AREAS OF DOWNED POWER LINES AND FLOODING. THE FLOODING ACROSS CUBA,
JAMAICA, AND HISPANIOLA COULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. ENSURE
GENERATORS ARE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND PLACED OUTSIDE AT LEAST 20
FEET AWAY FROM DWELLINGS AND GARAGES TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE
POISONING. DURING CLEAN UP, BE CAREFUL WHEN USING CHAINSAWS AND
POWER TOOLS. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0900Z 35.9N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 40.4N 58.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/0600Z 46.4N 51.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 01/1800Z 51.3N 45.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/0600Z 54.1N 39.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/1800Z 55.6N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/0600Z 56.8N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0600Z 60.0N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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