390
WTNT43 KNHC 311443
TCDAT3
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 31 2025
MELISSA NO LONGER POSSESSES ORGANIZED CONVECTION, AND IS NOW MERGING
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, MELISSA IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE. MELISSA STILL HAS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE, AS SHOWN IN THURSDAY EVENING ASCAT DATA
AND ALSO SHOWN IN THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS FOR THE CURRENT
TIME OF 15Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 75 KT,
MAINLY BASED ON FORECAST CONTINUITY. LARGE SWELLS FROM MELISSA ARE
SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD, OR 40 DEGREES AT
42 KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITHIN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL MELISSA WILL PASS NEAR,
BUT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF, THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE
TONIGHT, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
LATER THIS WEEKEND, MELISSA IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
WHILE INTERACTING WITH A HIGHER-LATITUDE, UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC MODELS (GFEX).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT MELISSA WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LARGE AND
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
TRAVERSES THE NORTH ATLANTIC. ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO HAVE
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FOR ANOTHER 24 H AND STILL BE A STORM-FORCE
CYCLONE IN 60 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END
OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH 60 HOURS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE LARGE SYSTEM WEAKENING FURTHER AS IT BEGINS TO JOIN
UP WITH A LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABSORBED AND
DISSIPATED JUST BEYOND THE 96-HOUR POINT.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. POST-STORM SAFETY: FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND AVOID
AREAS OF DOWNED POWER LINES AND FLOODING. ENSURE GENERATORS ARE
PROPERLY VENTILATED AND PLACED OUTSIDE AT LEAST 20 FEET AWAY FROM
DWELLINGS AND GARAGES TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. DURING
CLEAN UP, BE CAREFUL WHEN USING CHAINSAWS AND POWER TOOLS. DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 39.0N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 01/0000Z 43.5N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1200Z 49.4N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0000Z 53.2N 41.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1200Z 55.0N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 03/0000Z 56.2N 29.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/1200Z 57.5N 24.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1200Z 60.5N 16.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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