568
AXPZ20 KNHC 022135
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
STRONG WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND GAP
WINDS IN TEHUANTEPEC WILL DEVELOP, REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE
SPEEDS AND ROUGH SEAS BY THIS EVENING AND GALE FORCE WINDS BY
TONIGHT WITH SEAS REACHING VERY ROUGH RANGES THROUGH TUE. GALES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT, HOWEVER STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU EVENING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N128W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM THAT POINT TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS ENTERED THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA,
WITH ROUGH SEAS PREVAILING N OF 26N. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA AND A STRONG RIDGE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG WINDS
ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND GAP WINDS IN
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DEVELOP, REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE SPEEDS AND
ROUGH SEAS BY THIS EVENING AND GALE FORCE WINDS BY TONIGHT WITH
SEAS REACHING VERY ROUGH RANGES THROUGH TUE. GALES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUE NIGHT, HOWEVER STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU EVENING. THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO CABO SAN LUCAS BY TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH TUE EVENING. A SECOND SET OF LARGE NW
SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA LATE
THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WITH MODERATE SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS. BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE FROM THE SE TO S,
AND SEAS ARE MODERATE SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THU. THE
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL RESULT IN MODERATE N TO NE WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE FAR WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL WATERS.
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
18N AND W OF 115W AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NW OF THE REGION.
ROUGH SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVENT. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE N AND SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH W OF 110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
W OF 115W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SE THROUGH MON NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUE.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW REGION TUE NIGHT PRECEDED BY FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ERA
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