913
AXPZ20 KNHC 030349
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 03 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. IN ITS WAKE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO HAS INDUCED GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. ROUGH SEAS ARE WITH THESE
WINDS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH VERY ROUGH RANGES THROUGH
TUE. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUE
NIGHT, HOWEVER STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY ON THU. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR 09N110W BY TUE NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL COLOMBIA WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA, AND TO 11N86W TO 09N95W TO
12N107W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N116W 1011 MB AND TO 10N124W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO BEYOND 11N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN
104W-113W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-101.5W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
84W-87W, AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON A RECENTLY
STARTED GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT.
A SET OF LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL HAS ENTERED THE WATERS N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, WITH ROUGH SEAS N OF 25N. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS GENERALLY ALLOWING FOR MODERATE OR
LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS NOTED IN EARLIER
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE. A SECOND SET OF LARGE NW SWELL IS FORECAST
TO ENTER THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA LATE THU, AND SPREAD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
FRI NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS. MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE
OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THEY
BECOME SE TO S IN DIRECTION WEST OF 90W. MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER
THESE WATERS AS INDICATED BY EARLIER ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THU. THE
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL RESULT IN MODERATE N TO NE WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE FAR WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL WATERS. LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF ABOUT 18N AND AND WEST OF 116W. THE
SWELL IS LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS. THE GRADIENT IN PLACE IS ALLOWING
FOR MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 110W AS SEEN
IN THE MOST RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES OVER THESE
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
FEATURE OVER THE WATERS WEST OF ABOUT 115W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH 30N140W ON TUE NIGHT, PRECEDED BY FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE, A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION. ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MORE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WHILE IT CONTINUES WESTWARD.
AGUIRRE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page