051
AXPZ20 KNHC 030854
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. IN ITS WAKE, A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS BRINGING GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SHIP WITH CALL ID " WELQ"
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST REPORTED 35 TO 40 KT WINDS JUST A FEW
HOURS NEAR 13.5N95.5W. ROUGH SEAS ARE WITH THESE WINDS. THESE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH VERY ROUGH RANGES THROUGH TUE. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT, HOWEVER STRONG
TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY ON
THU. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 09N110W BY TUE NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL COLOMBIA WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA, AND TO 11N86W TO 08N97W TO
09N110W AND TO 10N124W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 10N130W
TO BEYOND 11N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 111W-113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 98.5W AND BETWEEN 113W-115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN ONGOING
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT.
LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE
DATA PASS FROM 02Z LAST NIGHT INDICATES SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT OVER
THESE WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL ARE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO CABO SAN LAZARO. ELSEWHERE, A RATHER WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS GENERALLY ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE OR LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS,
EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS NOTED IN
OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE. A SECOND SET OF LARGE NW SWELL IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA LATE THU, AND SPREAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE S
TO SW WINDS ARE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AS SEEN IN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. THESE
WINDS BECOME SE TO S IN DIRECTION WEST OF 90W. MODERATE SEAS ARE
OVER THESE WATERS AS INDICATED BY OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THU. THE
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL RESULT IN MODERATE N TO NE WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE FAR WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL WATERS. LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF ABOUT 18N AND AND WEST OF 116W. THE
SWELL IS LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS. THE GRADIENT IN PLACE IS ALLOWING
FOR MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 110W AS SEEN
IN THE MOST RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES OVER THESE
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
FEATURE OVER THE WATERS WEST OF ABOUT 115W THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH 30N140W ON TUE NIGHT, PRECEDED BY FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE, A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH SECTION. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD INTO AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
AGUIRRE
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