944
AXPZ20 KNHC 040402
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 04 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS BRINGING GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING WITH
THESE WINDS, WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHT AT AROUND 18 FT (5.5 M). THE
GALE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE TUE NIGHT, THEN BECOME STRONG
TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO FRESH
SPEEDS EARLY THU EVENING. ROUGH SEAS IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 09N106W BY
EARLY ON WED.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL COLOMBIA WESTWARD
TO ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PANAMA AND TO 08N78W TO 08N100W TO
10N110W TO 11N117W AND TO 09N126W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 09N126W TO 09N131W AND TO BEYOND 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 95W-97W, AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 108W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-103W, AND
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 126W-131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN ONGOING
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT.
LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS
INDICATES SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT OVER THESE WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST
OF THE SEAS NORTH OF ABOUT 26N. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT DUE TO THE
NORTHWEST SWELL ARE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE OR LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A SECOND SET OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA LATE
THU, AND SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG TO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT WHILE GENERALLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
ARE ELSEWHERE PER LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE
DATA PASSES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA,
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED DOWNWIND FROM
THERE TO NEAR 04N. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH WED MORNING.
THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE FAR
WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH WED
MORNING. AFTERWARD, RATHER CALM MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL WATERS. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 15N119W TO
09N118W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM
13N TO 16N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W.
LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS, NAMELY
NORTH OF ABOUT 10N AND AND WEST OF 115W. LATEST AVAILABLE ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES REVEAL SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT OVER THESE WATERS.
OTHERWISE, THE GRADIENT IN PLACE IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 105W AS NOTED IN THE MOST RECENT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES OVER THESE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THU BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA BEGINNING TUE EVENING. THIS FRONT
WILL BE PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES A POSITION FROM 30N129W TO 27N136W BY WED EVENING. A THAT
TIME, WINDS NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE PRESENT
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE NIGHT, HOWEVER, A
RATHER EXTENSIVE SET OF LONG-PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FORECAST WATERS STARTING WED, WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 FT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
AGUIRRE
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