342
AXPZ20 KNHC 041521
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GALE- FORCE GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THE WINDS ARE PRODUCING ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS, CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 18 FT (5.5 M). THE GALE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
FRESH SPEEDS EARLY THU EVENING. ROUGH SEAS IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST
SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 09N106W
BY EARLY ON WED.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
NW SWELL EVENT: LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BY A GALE FORCE LOW IN
THE PACIFIC WATERS NW OF THE AREA WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
DISCUSSION WATERS BY THIS EVENING. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT WILL
ENTER THE NW WATERS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 24N AND W OF 120W THROUGH THU BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT.
SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 16 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS ON WED.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 08N96W TO 08N130W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 84W,
FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W, AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN
100W AND 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN ONGOING
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT THAT IS FORECAST
TO END LATE TONIGHT.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS. NW SWELL IS BRINGING SEAS OF 8-9 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, EXTENDING
SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS OF 4-7
FT ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS, REACHING 4 FT AT THE
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GALE- FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE
TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO FRESH SPEEDS BY EARLY THU
EVENING. LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE WATERS N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA LATE THU. THIS SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI NIGHT
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG TO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING
DOWNSTREAM TO 91W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ALSO S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE DISCUSSION
WATERS, EXCEPT 6-8 FT WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH WED MORNING. THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL BRING
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN
THE FAR WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
THROUGH WED MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON A LARGE SET
OF NW SWELL FORECAST TO IMPACT THE N WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THU.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N130W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE AROUND THE
HIGH CENTER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS FROM
10N TO 20N AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE FAR SW WATERS. NW SWELL IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS, WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT
COVERING THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 110W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE
IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NW SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO
10 FT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS
IT REACHES FROM 30N130W TO 27N140W BY EARLY WED EVENING, WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A NEW SET OF LONG-
PERIOD NW SWELL TONIGHT. SEAS WITH THIS SWELL WILL PEAK NEAR 16
FT OVER THE NW WATERS ON WED. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WITH THIS
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, COVERING
MUCH OF THE THE WATERS N OF 05N AND W OF 115W BY FRI NIGHT BEFORE
STARTING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT.
AL
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