377
AXPZ20 KNHC 041940
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1940 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GALE- FORCE GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THE WINDS ARE PRODUCING ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS, CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 18 FT (5.5 M). THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH RESULTANT WINDS OVER TEHUANTEPEC
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY WED. WINDS WILL THEN
FURTHER GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO FRESH SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY THU
EVENING. ROUGH SEAS IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 09N106W BY EARLY WED.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
NW SWELL EVENT: LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BY A GALE FORCE LOW IN
THE PACIFIC WATERS NW OF THE AREA WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
DISCUSSION WATERS BY THIS EVENING. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT WILL
ENTER THE NW WATERS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 24N AND W OF 120W THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12
FT. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 16 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS ON WED.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N85W TO 07N97W TO 10N120W TO
09N130W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 13N
BETWEEN 90W AND 97W, AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 138W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN ONGOING
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT THAT IS FORECAST
TO END LATE TONIGHT.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS. NW SWELL IS BRINGING SEAS OF 7-9 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, EXTENDING
SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS OF 4-7
FT ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE- FORCE BY EARLY
WED, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO FRESH SPEEDS BY EARLY THU
EVENING. LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA THU. THIS SWELL
WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING
DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 91W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
ALSO S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER
THE DISCUSSION WATERS, EXCEPT 6-8 FT WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP
WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL DIMINISH WED MORNING. THE
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL BRING MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE FAR WESTERN OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH WED MORNING. MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON A LARGE SET
OF NW SWELL FORECAST TO IMPACT THE N WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THU.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH NEAR 25N126W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE AROUND THE
HIGH CENTER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE FAR SW WATERS. NW
SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS, WITH SEAS OF
8-10 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 110W.
ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NW SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS TONIGHT,
WITH FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10
FT PRECEDING THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES FROM 30N130W TO 27N140W BY EARLY WED EVENING, WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A NEW SET OF LONG- PERIOD NW
SWELL. SEAS WITH THIS SWELL WILL PEAK NEAR 16 FT OVER THE NW
WATERS ON WED. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WITH THIS SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, COVERING MUCH OF THE
WATERS N OF 05N AND W OF 115W BY FRI NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT.
AL
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