140
AXPZ20 KNHC 050404
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 05 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THE WINDS ARE PRODUCING ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS, CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 14 FT (4.5 M). THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH RESULTANT WINDS OVER TEHUANTEPEC
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY WED. WINDS WILL THEN
FURTHER GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO FRESH SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY THU
EVENING. ROUGH SEAS IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 09N108W BY EARLY WED.
NW SWELL EVENT: LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BY A GALE-FORCE LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS PRESENTLY PROPAGATING INTO THE FAR
NW DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
N OF 24N AND W OF 120W THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW
12 FT. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 16 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS ON WED.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN PANAMA AND TO 10N84W TO LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 08N90W 1011 MB TO 07N103W TO 09N111W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR
12N122W 1010 MB AND TO 08N128W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ TO 08N128W AND TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 124W-126W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-115W, ALSO
WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-84W AND BETWEEN
93W-95W, AND WITHIN 30 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-83W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN
ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT THAT IS
FORECAST TO END EARLY ON WED.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS. NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT OVER THE WATERS
W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SEAS ALSO REACH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO NEAR 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 122W.
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO.
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL
DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE EARLY ON WED, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO FRESH SPEEDS BY EARLY THU EVENING. LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY WED.
ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA THU. THIS SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
FRI NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING
DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 93W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
ALSO S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE
OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS PER LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT WELL OFFSHORE OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP
WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL DIMINISH WED MORNING. THE
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL BRING MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE FAR WESTERN OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH WED MORNING. MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A LARGE
SET OF NW SWELL THAT HAS STARTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR NW
DISCUSSION WATERS, AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH LATE THU.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, ANCHORED BY A
WEAK 1018 MB HIGH THAT IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N124W. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS FROM 09N TO 170N AND W OF ABOUT 110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SAME AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING 30N140W IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
SW WINDS OVER THE FAR NW DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS
ARE 2.5 TO 3 M. LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES SHOW SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 110W TO A LINE
FROM 30N128W TO 23N140W. SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, NW SWELL THAT IS N OF 19N AND WEST OF 117W
WILL DECAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS TONIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS REACHES FROM NEAR 30N130W TO 28N140W TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. A LARGE SET OF LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 15 FT (4.5 M).
AGUIRRE
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