791
AXPZ20 KNHC 051006
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
NEAR GALE THIS MORNING. SEAS CURRENTLY WITH THESE WINDS ARE TO
AROUND 10 FT (3 M) AS SUGGESTED BY AN OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO NEAR GALE. WINDS WILL
THEN FURTHER GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO FRESH SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY THU
EVENING. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE DOWNWIND OF THE GULF, AS SEEN IN
THE ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS, OVER THE AREA FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 95W AND 114W. THIS AREA OF SEAS WILL DECAY AS IT SHIFTS
WESTWARD THROUGH THU.
NW SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED
BY A DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS PRESENTLY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FAR NW DISCUSSION WATERS, WITH WAVE PERIODS
OF 12 TO 14 SECONDS. THE SWELL IS RESULTING IN SEAS GREATER THAN
12 FT OVER THESE WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 24N AND W OF 120W THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING
BELOW 12 FT. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 15 FT (4.5 M) OVER THE FAR NW
WATERS ON WED. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IN THIS AREA,
DEPENDING ON VESSEL TYPE AND CARGO.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANAMA AND TO 08N79W
TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 08N86W 1013 MB TO 07N100W TO 10N114W TO
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10.5N122W 1013 MB AND TO 08N132W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO BEYOND 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 113W-115W AND BETWEEN 121W-123W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
95W-98W, ALSO WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-
104W, AND WITHIN 30 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 126W-129W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON A SOON
TO END GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT.
OUTSIDE THE ONGOING TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS. NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF
6 TO 8 FT OVER THE WATERS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THESE SEAS ALSO REACH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO NEAR
10N BETWEEN 111W AND 123W. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO PER OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES. SEAS ARE 3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL
DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE-FORCE THIS MORNING. THE NEXT SET OF
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE WATERS N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA THU. THE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI NIGHT, THEN
SUBSIDE DURING THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT GAP WIND
EVENT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUN
NIGHT, AT WHICH TIME STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTH WINDS WILL SURGE
INTO THE GULF, AND POSSIBLY REACHING GALE-FORCE SOON AFTERWARD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING
DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 93W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
ALSO S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE
OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS PER LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT WELL OFFSHORE AND
SW OF GUATEMALA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP
WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WILL DIMINISH EARLY
ON FRI. RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A LARGE
SET OF NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NW DISCUSSION WATERS,
AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE
THU.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, ANCHORED BY A
WEAK 1021 MB HIGH THAT IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N125W. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS FROM 09N TO 17N AND W OF ABOUT 110W AS SEEN
IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SAME AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N137W TO 29N140W IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE FAR NW DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS WITH
THESE WINDS ARE 8 TO 12 FT. OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES SHOW SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF
110W TO A LINE FROM 30N128W TO 23N140W. SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT
RANGE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, NW SWELL THAT IS N OF 19N AND WEST OF 117W
WILL DECAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS TONIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS REACHES FROM NEAR 30N130W TO 28N140W TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. A LARGE SET OF LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 15 FT (4.5 M).
AGUIRRE
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