666
AXPZ20 KNHC 051504
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NW SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED
BY A STORM FORCE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE FAR NW DISCUSSION WATERS, WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 12 TO
14 SECONDS. CURRENTLY, SEAS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS WITH THIS
SWELL ARE PEAKING NEAR 16 FT (5.0 M). SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N AND W OF 120W THROUGH
THU NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT. MARINERS SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IN THIS AREA, DEPENDING ON VESSEL TYPE AND CARGO.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N110W TO 11N122W TO
08N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 12N
BETWEEN 94W AND 99W, FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 112W AND 126W, AND
FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 7-9 FT, ARE OVER AND
DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS, INCLUDING IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND 4-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3 FT
OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE THU. A SET OF
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE WATERS N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA THU. THE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI NIGHT, THEN
SUBSIDE DURING THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT FOR THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUN NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING
DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 93W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE OVER THE
DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP
WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE EAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WILL DIMINISH EARLY ON FRI.
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A LARGE
SET OF NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NW DISCUSSION WATERS
THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE THU.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS FROM 30N136W TO
28N140W. THE FRONT HAS USHERED IN A LARGE SET OF NW SWELL,
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N124W. LIGHT WINDS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AND THE COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL WEST OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 19N AND WEST OF 110W. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. SEAS ARE IN THE
8-9 FT RANGE FROM 10N TO 20N AND W OF 110W IN A MIX OF SUBSIDING
NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF 6-8 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS REACHES FROM NEAR 30N128W TO 28N140W TONIGHT. THE NW
SWELL OVER THE NW WATERS WILL PROPAGATE SE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W
OF 115W BY FRI EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
AL
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