056
AXPZ20 KNHC 060403
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 06 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NW SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED
BY A STORM FORCE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE FAR NW DISCUSSION WATERS, WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 12 TO
14 SECONDS. CURRENTLY, SEAS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS WITH THIS
SWELL ARE PEAKING NEAR 15 FT (4.5 M). SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N AND W OF 120W THROUGH
THU NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT. MARINERS SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IN THIS AREA, DEPENDING ON VESSEL TYPE AND CARGO.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA SOUTHWESTWARD
TO 07N78W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 06N80W 1011 MB TO 09N86W TO
07N97W TO 09N110W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N119W 1010 MB TO
11N123W AND TO 09N130W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 09N130W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 09N TO 14N
BETWEEN 126W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO WITHIN 120 NM
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 118W-124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT, ARE OVER
AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS, INCLUDING
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE WEST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND 4 TO 7 FT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE THU. A SET OF
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE WATERS N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA THU. THE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI NIGHT, THEN
SUBSIDE DURING THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT GAP WIND
EVENT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUN
NIGHT, WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE-FORCE BY EARLY MON
MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH TO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 93W. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO
6 FT RANGE OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS PER LATEST ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OVER
AND DOWNSTREAM THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL DIMINISH ON FRI.
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REGION FOR THE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS MAY FRESHEN OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION MON NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A LARGE
SET OF NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NW DISCUSSION WATERS
THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE THU.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE NW WATERS ALONG A
POSITION FROM NEAR 30N129W TO 27N140W. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE SET OF LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL AS DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS N OF ABOUT 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 25.5N124W. LIGHT WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HIGH CENTER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE, AND THE COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING MODERATE WINDS WITHIN
60 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF
THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N AND WEST OF 110W. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. SEAS
ARE IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE FROM 10N TO 20N AND W OF 110W IN A MIX
OF SUBSIDING NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE
DATA PASS FROM 02Z REVEALED THESE SEAS. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINISH
DISSIPATING IN A FEW HOURS. THE NW SWELL OVER THE NW WATERS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF
113W BY FRI EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. ANOTHER
SET OF NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODERATE FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AT
FRESH SPEEDS BEGINNING THU NIGHT EAST OF ABOUT 115W BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS ON SAT
AGUIRRE
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