551
AXPZ20 KNHC 061501
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NW SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED
BY A STORM FORCE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE FAR NW DISCUSSION WATERS, WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 12 TO
14 SECONDS. CURRENTLY, SEAS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS WITH THIS
SWELL ARE PEAKING NEAR 16 FT (5.0 M). SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 23N AND W OF 120W INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME
CAUTION IN THIS AREA, DEPENDING ON VESSEL TYPE AND CARGO.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 10N90W TO 07N110W TO
10N123W TO 09N128W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N128W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
06N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 121W AND 133W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT,
ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO
7 FT RANGE. SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
ENTER THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA TODAY. THE SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI NIGHT, THEN SUBSIDE DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUN NIGHT, WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE-
FORCE BY EARLY MON MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE OVER THE DISCUSSION
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO GENTLE ON
FRI AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN. WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
WILL FRESHEN SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A LARGE
SET OF NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NW DISCUSSION WATERS
THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE SUBSIDING.
ASIDE FROM THE NW SWELL DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY
A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N129W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER AND OVER THE NW WATERS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ, IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO
20N AND WEST OF 117W. MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. SEAS ARE IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE FROM 10N TO
20N AND W OF 115W IN A MIX OF SUBSIDING NW SWELL AND NE WIND
WAVES. SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NW SWELL OVER THE NW WATERS WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH SEAS GREATER
THAN 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 113W BY
FRI EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. ANOTHER SET OF NW
SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ON SUN AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AL
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