263
AXPZ20 KNHC 070828
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NW SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM
FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, IS PROPAGATING
ACROSS NW AND N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT, WHERE
WAVE MODELS SHOW THE LEADING WAVES OF THIS SWELL WITH PERIODS OF
13 TO 15 SECONDS. CURRENTLY, SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL ARE
PEAKING AT 12 TO 14 FT (3.7 TO 4.3 M), TO THE NORTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 119W AND 131W. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N AND W OF 120W TONIGHT
BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AROUND MIDDAY FRI. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME
CAUTION IN THIS AREA, DEPENDING ON VESSEL TYPE AND CARGO.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N73W TO 09.5N81W TO 010N86W TO
TO 07.5N109W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07.5N109W TO 09N127W THEN
RESUMES FROM 09N129W TO 08.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 90W AND
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 112W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N-NW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
OFF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND ARE STRONGEST FROM
PUNTA EUGENIA NORTHWARD. LARGE NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGIONAL
WATERS IS LEADING TO BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT FROM PUNTA EUGENIA
NORTHWARD, AND 5-7 FT SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINING OPEN WATERS
FROM LAS TRES MARIAS TO PUERTO ANGEL, WHERE SEAS ARE 4-5 FT.
INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NW WINDS ARE
OCCURRING. SEAS THERE ARE 3 FT OR LESS EXCEPT AROUND 4 FT AT THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF. GAP WINDS ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. RECENT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 20
KT EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO NEAR 14.5N. SEAS THERE ARE ESTIMATED AT
5 TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
LARGE NW SWELL BUILDING INTO THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS OF BAJA SUR THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON, THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH SUN. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM N TO S
STARTING FRI NIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS WILL DIMINISH
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
BAJA NORTE WATERS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUN NIGHT, WITH WINDS LIKELY
REACHING GALE-FORCE BY EARLY MON MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS AND WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND ARE STRONGEST EAST THROUGH
NORTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE
IN SW SWELL OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO GENTLE LATE FRI
AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE TO MODERATE SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL THEN FRESHEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH MON. SEAS
WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MIX OF MODERATE SW AND NW SWELL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS
EXPECTED BY MON AND WILL GENERATE LARGE NORTHERLY SEAS MOVING
INTO THE OUTER WATERS OF GUATEMALA BY MON NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A LARGE
SET OF NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NW DISCUSSION WATERS
THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING.
ASIDE FROM THE NW SWELL DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY
A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N133W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
N OF 26N AND W OF 125W TO 140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH,
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ, IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 23N AND WEST OF 117W. THE NW SWELL MOVING
INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT IS MIXING WITH NE WAVES BEING
GENERATED IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE FROM 10N TO 18N AND WEST OF
122W, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT. MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. N OF 20N AND W OF 120W SEAS OF 8 TO 14
FT PREVAIL IN BUILDING NW SWELL. SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NW SWELL OVER THE N AND W WATERS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING
SIGNIFICANTLY. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 110W BY FRI NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE. ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELL, ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NW WATERS, WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SAT AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRIPLING
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