831
AXPZ20 KNHC 071449
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NW SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS
THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA, WHERE WAVE MODELS SHOW THE
LEADING WAVES OF THIS SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS.
CURRENTLY, SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL ARE PEAKING NEAR 13
FT (4.0 M) TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 119W AND 122W. SEAS WITH
THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TODAY. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
IN THIS AREA, DEPENDING ON VESSEL TYPE AND CARGO.
ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW WATERS
THIS WEEKEND, WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ENTERING THE NW WATERS
LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 10N90W TO 08N110W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N110W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 89W
AND 111W, AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE, WITH MODERATE WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO.
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, SEAS
OF 4-6 FT PREVAIL. OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3 FT OR
LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TODAY. LARGE NW SWELL OVER THE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS OF
BAJA SUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUN. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
FROM N TO S STARTING TONIGHT. THE NEXT GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUN NIGHT,
WITH WINDS LIKELY REACHING GALE-FORCE BY EARLY MON MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND ARE STRONGEST EAST THROUGH
NORTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE
IN SW SWELL OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO GENTLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE TO MODERATE SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL THEN FRESHEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH MON.
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MIX OF MODERATE SW AND NW SWELL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT
IS EXPECTED BY MON AND WILL GENERATE LARGE NORTHERLY SEAS MOVING
INTO THE OUTER WATERS OF GUATEMALA BY MON NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A LARGE
SET OF NW SWELL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING, AND ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW WATERS SUN.
ASIDE FROM THE NW SWELL DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY
A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N131W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
N OF 25N AND W OF 125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 23N AND WEST
OF 117W. THE NW SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS IS
MIXING WITH NE WAVES BEING GENERATED IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE FROM
10N TO 18N AND WEST OF 120W, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT. MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. N OF 20N AND W
OF 120W SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT PREVAIL IN NW SWELL. SEAS ARE IN THE
6 TO 8 FT RANGE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NW SWELL OVER THE N AND W WATERS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W
OF 110W BY TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. ANOTHER
PULSE OF NW SWELL, ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS THE NW WATERS, WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS
SAT AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AL
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