165
AXPZ20 KNHC 072037
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NW SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: THE LARGE NW SWELL HAS SUBSIDED
ENOUGH WHERE SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 12 FT. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE
NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW WATERS THIS WEEKEND, WITH
SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ENTERING THE NW WATERS LATE SAT INTO
EARLY SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 10N90W TO 08N106W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N106W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 87W
AND 105W, AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OFF MEXICO. GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO,
SEAS OF 4-6 FT PREVAIL. OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3
FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATING OVER THE WATERS
WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUN. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM N TO S STARTING TONIGHT. THE NEXT GALE
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACHING GALE-
FORCE BY EARLY MON MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE-FORCE WED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND ARE STRONGEST
EAST THROUGH NORTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO
6 FT RANGE IN SW SWELL OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
PULSE TO MODERATE SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN WILL
FRESHEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
MIX OF MODERATE SW AND NW SWELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED BY MON AND
WILL GENERATE LARGE NORTHERLY SEAS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS
OF GUATEMALA BY MON NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON AN
UPCOMING SET OF LARGE NW SWELL THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS
THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1025
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N130W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE N OF
25N AND W OF 130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 23N AND WEST
OF 120W. THE NW SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS IS
MIXING WITH NE WAVES BEING GENERATED IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE FROM
10N TO 18N AND WEST OF 120W, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT. MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. N OF 20N AND W OF
120W SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT PREVAIL IN NW SWELL. SEAS ARE IN THE 6
TO 8 FT RANGE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NW SWELL OVER THE N AND W WATERS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W
OF 110W BY TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. ANOTHER
PULSE OF NW SWELL, ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS THE NW WATERS, WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS
SAT AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AL
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