755
AXPZ20 KNHC 080307 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0220 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NW SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS
THAT LARGE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 12 FT AND HIGHER
ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, TO THE NORTH
OF 28.5N AND BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA AND
CLOSER TO THE BAJA NORTE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 12
FT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ANOTHER PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW WATERS THIS WEEKEND, WITH SEAS GREATER
THAN 12 FT ENTERING THE NW WATERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N75W TO 11N84W TO 09N97W TO
10N102W TO 08N115W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N115W TO BEYOND
08.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08.5N TO
13N BETWEEN 86W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 102W AND 112W,
AND FROM 07N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 118W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS OFF OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LARGE NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8
TO 12 FT ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND 7 TO 10 FT
SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE FROM N TO S STARTING SAT MORNING. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACHING GALE-FORCE BY EARLY MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE-FORCE WED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WATERS N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH THIS EVENING, ROUGHLY ALONG 10N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SW TO W WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND ARE
STRONGEST EAST THROUGH NORTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS ARE
IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE IN SW SWELL OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION WILL PULSE TO MODERATE SPEEDS TONIGHT AND THEN TO FRESH
SPEEDS SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT, BEFORE FRESHENING MON EVENING
THROUGH TUE EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED
BY A MIX OF MODERATE SW AND NW SWELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED BY MON AND WILL
GENERATE LARGE NORTHERLY SEAS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS OF
GUATEMALA BY MON NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON LARGE NW
SWELL ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT, AND THE NEXT UPCOMING PULSE
OF LARGE NW SWELL THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 118W,
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N130W. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE N OF 25N AND W OF 126W. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT
THERE IN SLOWLY SUBSIDING NW SWELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO
22N AND WEST OF 120W. THE NW SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS IS MIXING WITH NE WAVES BEING GENERATED IN THE TRADE WIND
ZONE FROM 10N TO 18N AND WEST OF 120W, WHERE SEAS REMAIN 8 TO 12
FT. FRESH N WINDS CONTINUE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W,
WHERE SEAS ARE 11 TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL. MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT
RANGE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH AND
WESTERN WATERS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SAT NIGHT
BEFORE SUBSIDING. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 110W TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELL, ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NW WATERS, WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE NW WATERS SAT AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS SAT MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT REACHES NEAR 29N138W AND STALLS.
STRIPLING
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