721
AXPZ20 KNHC 082152
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SUN BEFORE WINDS
QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO GALE FORCE LATE SUN NIGHT, AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTWARD OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 12N98W BY MON NIGHT, AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT ARE EXPECTED NEAR THESE WINDS.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING, WITH WINDS
PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS THEREAFTER THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
11N107W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 25.5N122W, AND MODERATE
N WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE TROUGH AS NOTED VIA RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE OVER THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, AND RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW 8 TO 11 FT SEAS
OVER THIS REGION. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT PREVAIL FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, WITH 1 TO 2 FT SEAS IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO
THIS EVENING, WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG N
GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SUN BEFORE
WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO GALE FORCE LATE SUN NIGHT, AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING SOUTH
AND SOUTHWESTWARD OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 12N98W BY MON NIGHT, AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT ARE EXPECTED NEAR THESE WINDS.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING, WITH WINDS
PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS THEREAFTER THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE NE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS A SURFACE
TROUGH PREVAILS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH MODERATE S TO
SW WINDS NOTED VIA SCATTEROMETER DATA TO THE SOUTH. SEAS OF 4 TO
6 FT IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REGIONAL
WATERS, WITH 7 FT SEAS NOTED SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NE WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUE.
FRESH N WINDS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AND
OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR BY MIDWEEK. FARTHER WEST, MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF
GUATEMALA MON NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT OCCURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 32N127W EXTENDS
WEAK RIDGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
125W AND 135W, AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN
WATERS, STEMMING FROM A STRONG AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR 43N141W. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS NORTH
OF 25N AND WEST OF 135W, WITH LOCALIZED NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS
OCCURRING NEAR 30N140W. RECENT ALTIMETER AND SOFAR BUOY DATA SHOW
8 TO 12 FT SEAS IN THIS REGION. TO THE EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS BEEN ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 25.5N122W,
AND MODERATE N WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE TROUGH. FARTHER
SOUTH, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO 20N, AND MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED TO
THE SOUTH. WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED VIA ALTIMETER OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS, WITH NW SWELL DOMINATING
NORTH OF 05N, AND MIXED NW AND SW SWELL FARTHER SOUTH.
FOR THE FORECAST, WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE NORTH OF 20N, AWAY FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST WATERS, THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT, AND SOUTH OF 20N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS LATER TODAY, AND
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 135W
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
OVER THIS REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS SURROUNDING THE LOW. A NEW NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 130W BY LATE SUN,
AND NORTH OF 12N AND WEST OF 120W BY LATE MON. VERY ROUGH SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 134W
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG E TO NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY A GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL OCCUR AROUND 10N AND EAST OF 110W EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page