105
AXPZ20 KNHC 090920
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE
WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO GALE FORCE LATE SUN NIGHT, AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN ITS WAKE. THIS
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR
12N98W BY LATE MON NIGHT, PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF VERY
ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 20 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC INTO EARLY WED MORNING, THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY, WITH
WINDS PULSING TO NEAR 30 KT EACH NIGHT THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORNING.
LARGE NW SWELL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS: A COLD FRONT HAS
ENTERED THE FAR NW WATERS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT, AND
EXTENDS FROM 30N137W TO BEYOND 27.5N140W. THIS FRONT IS
CONNECTED TO A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NE PACIFIC
WATERS NEAR 47N139W. STORM-FORCE NW TO N WINDS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING WEST OF THE LOW, AND GENERATING LARGE SWELL OF 20 FT
AND GREATER. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUN BEFORE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT, THEN MEANDERS IN THE
VICINITY OF 28N140W THROUGH TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING. LARGE NW
SWELL GENERATED NW OF THE AREA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW
WATERS TONIGHT, AND WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 14 FT THERE BY
MORNING. THE AREA OF SEAS 12 FT AND GREATER IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUN NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW 12 FT MON NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N75W TO 08N92W TO 12N108W TO
09.5N122W TO 10N131W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08.5N EAST OF
81.5W, FROM 09N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W, AND FROM 08.5N
TO 13N BETWEEN 119W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1013 MB LOW PRES OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE NEAR 32N120W TO 23N122W, WHILE A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TO LAS TRES MARIAS. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES IS YIELDING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT MODERATE N TO NE WINDS FROM CABO SAN
LAZARO SOUTHWARD TO 20N. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED
INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, BECOMING GENTLE N WINDS FROM THE
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF TO THE WATERS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. NW
SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT CONTINUED
TO SHOW SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT OFFSHORE OF BAJA NORTE. ELSEWHERE
SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 7 TO 10 FT. SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE GULF.
LIGHT TO GENTLE NW TO W WINDS CONTINUE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MEXICAN WATERS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ACROSS THESE
WATERS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL, EXCEPT TO 8 FT
OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
FROM N TO S ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT, DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 8 FT ON MON. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS
QUICKLY STRENGTHENING TO GALE FORCE LATE SUN NIGHT, AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN ITS WAKE. THIS
GALE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF GALE-
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
NEAR 12N98W BY LATE MON NIGHT, PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF VERY
ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 20 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC INTO EARLY WED MORNING, THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY, WITH
WINDS PULSING TO NEAR 30 KT EACH NIGHT THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE NE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION, AS A
SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. GENTLE OFFSHORE
WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG ABOUT
10N, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS NOTED IN RECENT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. SEAS OF
4 TO 5 FT IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS, WITH 6-7 FT SEAS NOTED SOUTHWEST OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE
GULF OF PANAMA AND THE SW PANAMA COASTAL WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE NE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH AT
NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY TUE, THEN INCREASE
TO FRESH TO STRONG THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FRESH N WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY OCCUR IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AND OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR
TUE NIGHT. FARTHER WEST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND
HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA MON NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WED AS A SIGNIFICANT GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OCCURS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
35N127W, AND EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. A COLD FRONT HAS
ENTERED THE NW WATERS TONIGHT, AND EXTENDS FROM 30N137W TO
BEYOND 27.5N140W, STEMMING FROM A STRONG COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 47N139W. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT IS LEADING TO FRESH SW WINDS
NORTH OF 26N AND WEST OF 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. RECENT
ALTIMETER AND SOFAR BUOY DATA SHOW 8 TO 12 FT SEAS IN THIS
REGION. TO THE EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 23N122W, WITH MODERATE N WINDS OCCURRING
WEST OF THE TROUGH TO 125W AND NORTH OF 28N. SEAS REMAIN 8 TO 10
FT ACROSS THIS AREA. FARTHER SOUTH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 19N. MODERATE
TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS W OF 105W, WITH NW SWELL DOMINATING NORTH
OF 10N, AND MIXED NW AND SW SWELL FARTHER SOUTH.
FOR THE FORECAST, WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE NORTH OF 20N THROUGH MON, EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST
WATERS, AND SOUTH OF 20N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS TONIGHT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUE, WITH FRESH SW WINDS OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N AND
WEST OF 135W AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OVER THESE NW WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING
TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SURROUNDING THE LOW. NEW NW SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THIS AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 130W BY
LATE SUN, AND NORTH OF 12N AND WEST OF 120W BY LATE MON. SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 12 FT ARE EXPECTED TO COVER THE AREA FROM 30N133W TO
24N140W THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO TUE.
LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG E TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY A
GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SPREAD
LARGE NE SWELL INTO THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 15N AND EAST OF 110W
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING.
STRIPLING
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