048
AXPZ20 KNHC 092230
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: FRESH N GAP WINDS TODAY WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE TO STRONG SPEEDS THIS EVENING AND REACH GALE
FORCE LATE TONIGHT, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
GULF OF AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. A
LARGE EXPANSE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AND
WEST AS 12N98W BY EARLY TUE, AND SEAS OF 12 TO 21 FT WILL OCCUR
NEAR THESE WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED
MORNING, WITH WINDS PULSING TO STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE THROUGH
FRI MORNING.
LARGE NW SWELL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS: LARGE NW SWELL,
ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN WATERS, WILL SUPPORT A WIDE EXPANSE OF ROUGH SEAS
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 130W BY LATE
TONIGHT, AND NORTH OF 12N AND WEST OF 120W BY LATE MON. VERY
ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF
133W THROUGH MON. ROUGH SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH SEAS NORTH OF 20N FALLING BELOW 8 FT
BY EARLY WED, AND SOUTH OF 20N BY THU. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW NW
SWELL WILL LEAD TO ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THIS SAME REGION
WED NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78.5W TO 07N81W T0 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 13N
BETWEEN 88W AND 93W, AND FROM 08N TO 12N WEST OF 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FRESH N WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ELSEWHERE, A 1014 MB LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO NEAR 27N109W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH SONORA, AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO 23N107W. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS AS WEAK
RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW
RESIDUAL NW SWELL IS LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT OFFSHORE
OF BAJA SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SEAS OF 4
TO 7 FT PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH N GAP WINDS TODAY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO STRONG SPEEDS THIS EVENING AND REACH GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT,
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. A LARGE EXPANSE OF GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS 12N98W BY EARLY
TUE, AND SEAS OF 12 TO 21 FT WILL OCCUR NEAR THESE WINDS. GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED MORNING, WITH WINDS PULSING
TO STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE THROUGH FRI MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF THESE WATERS, THOUGH ROUGH SEAS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MON
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THROUGH MON. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL PULSE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MON AS TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS LOW
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
NE TO NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS CONTINUE TO
THE SOUTH, AS NOTED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. MIXED NW AND SW SWELL
ARE SUPPORTING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS, WITH 7
FT SEAS NOTED SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND OFFSHORE OF
ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE GULF OF AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS MAY REACH STRONG SPEEDS EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING BY MIDWEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AND SOUTH OF EL
SALVADOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA, EXPECT FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS MON NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OCCURS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD TO WELL
OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA EARLY TUE INTO WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHWEST WATERS,
STEMMING FROM A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFFSHORE OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS DECAYING, AND EXTENDS
FROM 30N134W TO 24.5N138.5W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW
MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE FIRST COLD FRONT,
WITH MODERATE N WINDS NOTED NEAR THE SECOND FRONT. A NEW NW
SWELL IS LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 133W,
WITH 12 TO 14 FT SEAS NORTH OF 27N AND WEST OF 136W, AS NOTED VIA
RECENT ALTIMETER AND SOFAR BUOY DATA. RIDGING EXTENDS OVER MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH LOCALLY
FRESH NE WINDS NOTED IN THE TRADE WIND REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH
SE TO SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
RESIDUAL NW SWELL IS SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT EAST OF
125W OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS
SOUTH OF 20N.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL, ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS, WILL SUPPORT
A WIDE EXPANSE OF ROUGH SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF
20N AND WEST OF 130W BY LATE TONIGHT, AND NORTH OF 12N AND WEST
OF 120W BY LATE MON. VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED
NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 133W THROUGH MON. ROUGH SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH SEAS NORTH OF
20N FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY WED, AND SOUTH OF 20N BY THU.
LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW NW SWELL WILL LEAD TO ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS OVER THIS SAME REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, STRONG E TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY A GALE
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SPREAD LARGE
NE SWELL INTO THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 15N AND EAST OF 110W MON
NIGHT THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING.
ADAMS
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