131
AXPZ20 KNHC 100316
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: N GAP WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING AND EXTEND
SOUTHWARD TO 15N, WELL AHEAD OF A NW GULF OF AMERICA COLD FRONT.
WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATER
TONIGHT, AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF IT ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. A
LARGE EXPANSE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR
SOUTH AND WEST AS 12N98W BY EARLY TUE, PRODUCING SEAS OF 12 TO 20
FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED
MORNING, BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY, AND PULSING STRONG TO
NEAR-GALE FORCE THROUGH FRI MORNING.
LARGE NW SWELL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS: LARGE NW SWELL,
GENERATED BY DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC, AND A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS TONIGHT,
WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF ROUGH SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL
OCCUR NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 130W BY LATE TONIGHT, AND NORTH OF
12N AND WEST OF 120W BY LATE MON. VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 133W THROUGH MON. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH SEAS
NORTH OF 20N FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY WED, AND SOUTH OF 20N BY
THU. LOOKING AHEAD, NEW NW SWELL WILL LEAD TO ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS OVER THIS SAME REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N74.5W TO 10.5N80W TO 08N94W
TO 11N104W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING N OF 06N EAST OF 84W, FROM 06N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 88W
AND 95W, AND FROM 07.5N TO 15.5N WEST OF 110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
N GAP WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, WHERE SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 7 FT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD ALONG 124W TO 26N124W, WHILE A
SECOND TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS NW MEXICO, YIELDING A RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS.
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE NW
WINDS OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
AND ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS
BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST, AS WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS OVER
THE REGION. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW RESIDUAL NW SWELL IS
LEADING TO SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT OFFSHORE OF BAJA, SOUTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO, WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG N GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS
12N98W BY EARLY TUE, WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 21 FT WITHIN THESE
WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING, WITH
WINDS THEN PULSING TO STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE THROUGH FRI
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, THOUGH ROUGH SEAS MAY PERSIST NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THROUGH MON. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH MON AS TROUGHING
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NE GAP WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG ABOUT 09N, WHILE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH, AS NOTED IN RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA.
MIXED NW AND SW SWELL ARE SUPPORTING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS, WITH 7 FT SEAS NOTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE GULF OF AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN, AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE
TO STRONG SPEEDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING BY MIDWEEK. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF
FONSECA AND SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OFFSHORE OF
GUATEMALA, EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS MON NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT GALE FORCE WIND
EVENT OCCURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD TO WELL OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA EARLY
TUE INTO WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHWEST WATERS W OF
136W, STEMMING FROM A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FIRST FRONT HAS BECOME
STATIONARY FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W, WHILE THE SECOND COLD FRONT
IS SLOWLY ENTERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS. RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWED MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS OCCURRING E THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO 132W, WITH MODERATE N WINDS NOTED NEAR THE SECOND
FRONT. LARGE NW SWELL BUILDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS WITH AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTS IS LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 23N AND
WEST OF 132W, WITH 12 TO 15 FT SEAS NORTH OF 26N AND WEST OF
135W, AS NOTED VIA RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER AND SOFAR BUOY
DATA. WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, BETWEEN 133W AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 20N,
WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS NOTED IN THE TRADE WIND REGION.
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. RESIDUAL NW SWELL IS SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS OF 8
TO 10 FT EAST OF 125W TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF 20N.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL, ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS, WILL SUPPORT A
LARGE AREA OF ROUGH SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF
20N AND WEST OF 130W BY LATE TONIGHT, AND NORTH OF 12N AND WEST
OF 120W BY LATE MON. VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT ARE EXPECTED
NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 133W THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH SEAS NORTH OF
20N FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY WED, AND SOUTH OF 20N BY THU.
LOOKING AHEAD, NEW NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED,
LEADING TO ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THIS SAME REGION WED
NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG E TO NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY A GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SPREAD LARGE NE SWELL INTO THE WATERS FROM
05N TO 15N AND EAST OF 110W MON NIGHT THROUGH WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
STRIPLING
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