681
AXPZ20 KNHC 101607
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE GAP WINDS
ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. SEAS ARE BUILDING
ACROSS THE BASIN ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT STRONG GALES TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, ALONG VERY ROUGH SEAS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT A
PLUME OF STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS
WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS 110W, MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW
SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW GALE FORCE
AROUND MIDDAY WED. STRONG WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 14N THROUGH FRI
MORNING.
LARGE NW SWELL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS: LARGE NW SWELL,
GENERATED BY DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC IN RECENT
DAYS, CONTINUES TO COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 125W
THIS MORNING, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 14 FT AND WAVE
PERIODS AROUND 14 SECONDS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL ACROSS THESE NW WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE BEFORE A LOW NORTH OF THE REGION WEAKENS AND
SHIFT NE OUT OF THE AREA, WITH THE MERGED COLD FRONTS THEN
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT TONIGHT, AND BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, NEW NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THESE SAME NW
WATERS WED MORNING, LEADING TO ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THIS
SAME REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N85W TO 07N95W TO
11N115W TO 12N135W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N135W TO 12N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND
85W, AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA. LOWER PRESSURE
IS EVIDENT ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING FRESH NW
WINDS ACROSS THAT BASIN THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO GENTLE BREEZES
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. NW SWELL OF
8 TO 9 FT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, BUT IS 5 TO
7 FT ELSEWHERE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODERATE SEAS IN A MIX OF NW
AND SW SWELL ARE NOTED OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO OUTSIDE OF
TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE FORCE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE WINDS GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND GREATLY EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING, AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS
12N98W BY LATE MON NIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 20 FT AT
THAT TIME. STRONG GALES TO 45 KT EXTENDING OUT TO 150 NM FROM
THE COAST OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING,
WITH WINDS THEN PULSING TO STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE THROUGH FRI
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, THOUGH ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THROUGH MON. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH MON AS
TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
TONIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WEAKLY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 88W, WHILE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH, ALONG 09N, AS DEPICTED BY RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA. MIXED NW AND SW SWELL ARE SUPPORTING 4 TO 6
FT SEAS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS, WITH 7 FT SEAS NOTED SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA, INSIDE THE
GULF OF PANAMA, AND ALONG THE W COAST OF COSTA RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE GULF OF
AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN, AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY OCCUR ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA AND
SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR TUE NIGHT INTO MIDDAY WED. OFFSHORE OF
GUATEMALA, EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AS A SIGNIFICANT GALE FORCE
WIND EVENT OCCURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ROUGH SEAS WILL
EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD TO WELL OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA EARLY TUE INTO WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 31N137W
TO 24N140W. EARLIER SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE
SE TO S WINDS OCCURRING E THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 25N AND E TO
132W. LARGE NW SWELL BUILDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS WITH AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 21N AND WEST
OF 130W, WITH 12 TO 15 FT SEAS NORTH OF 23N AND WEST OF 135W, AS
NOTED BY RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER AND SOFAR BUOY DATA. WEAK
RIDGING EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC N OF
18N, BETWEEN 135W AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 21N,
WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS NOTED FROM 12N TO 16N AND W OF 125W.
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. RESIDUAL NW SWELL IS PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO
10 FT BETWEEN 105W AND 125W EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 10N.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
WATERS, WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF ROUGH SEAS THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8
FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 18N AND WEST OF 129W BY
SUNRISE, AND N OF 13N AND WEST OF 125W BY MON EVENING. VERY
ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF
133W THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH SEAS NORTH OF 20N FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY
EARLY WED, AND SOUTH OF 20N BY THU. LOOKING AHEAD, NEW NW SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED, LEADING TO ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS OVER THIS SAME REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK. STRONG E
TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY A SIGNIFICANT GALE FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SPREAD LARGE NE
SWELL INTO THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 15N AND EAST OF 115W MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING.
CHRISTENSEN/STRIPLING
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