137
AXPZ20 KNHC 110322
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0255 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: COLD, DRY AIR AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ARE POOLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF
OF AMERICA, AND FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
CURRENTLY. THIS FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE NW
ATLANTIC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
INDICATING GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT, AND IT IS
PLAUSIBLE THE CURRENT STRONG GALES WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM
FORCE WINDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL
PEAK AROUND 24 FT (7 M) TUE MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BELOW GALE FORCE AROUND MIDDAY WED. STRONG WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI.
LARGE NW SWELL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS: LARGE NW SWELL,
GENERATED BY DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC IN RECENT
DAYS, CONTINUES TO COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 125W,
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FT AND WAVE PERIODS
AROUND 14 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NORTH OF
20N THROUGH LATE TUE, BUT 8 TO 9 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST
FROM 07N TO 20N WEST OF 120W IN A MIX OF THE DECAYING NW SWELL
AND SHORTER-PERIOD NE WAVE GENERATED BY TRADE WIND FLOW. LOOKING
AHEAD, ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS
SOUTH OF 30N AND EAST OF 140W BY LATE WED ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. THE LARGE SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
WHICH WILL REACH FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO 13N140W
BY LATE FRI.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 07N99W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 09N104W TO 12N115W AND THEN FROM 10N120W TO BEYOND 12N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO
10N EAST OF 85W, AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE STORM WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N122W EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW-N WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
EXCEPT FOR SEAS TO 8 FT SW OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM WATERS,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GAP WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH
BELOW STORM FORCE EARLY TUE, BUT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THU. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH SAT. FARTHER NORTH, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE
THU THROUGH SAT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI. FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATE THU THROUGH SAT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SWELL AND MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS GENERATED FROM THE GALE-
FORCE GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE AFFECTING THE
WATERS OFF GUATEMALA BEYOND 90 NM. FARTHER EAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG EASTERLY GAP WINDS AND SEAS TO 6 FT MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH
OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND
MODERATE SEAS IN S SWELL ARE PREVALENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COLOMBIA,
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PULSE EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
N TO NE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF
OF FONSECA AND SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR TUE NIGHT INTO MIDDAY WED.
OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA, EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE
WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS A SIGNIFICANT
STORM FORCE WIND EVENT OCCURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ROUGH
SEAS WILL EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD TO WELL OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR
AND GUATEMALA EARLY TUE INTO WED AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING LARGE NW SWELL
AND STRONG WINDS IN THE FAR NW WATERS.
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE NE WATERS
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC,
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.
IN THE EASTERN WATERS, A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
NORTH OF 09N AND BETWEEN 95W AND 101W. FARTHER WEST, A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 118W IN THE TRADE WATERS. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
FROM 11N TO 20N AND BETWEEN 110W AND 135W. MEANWHILE, MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL SOUTH OF 07N. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE EAST OF 110W WILL BE
THE PLUME OF WINDS AND SWELL GENERATED BY THE STORM-FORCE WIND
EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS EAST OF 110W FROM 02N TO 14N THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE OTHER IMPACTS TO SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE DESCRIBED
ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N LATER IN THE WEEK.
STRONG WINDS AND AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT.
DELGADO
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