687
AXPZ20 KNHC 110911
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0855 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: A ROBUST 1031 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS IS FORCING STORM-FORCE N
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS SHOW STRONG TO GALE-FORCE N-NE WINDS, UP TO 45
KT, OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO
10N AND 100W. SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 23 FT (7 M). STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO GALE-FORCE THIS MORNING AND GALE-
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
FRI. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE, DECREASING BELOW 8 FT LATE FRI.
LARGE NW SWELL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS: LARGE NW SWELL,
GENERATED BY DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC IN RECENT
DAYS, CONTINUES TO COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 12N AND WEST OF
125W, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 13 FT AND WAVE PERIODS
AROUND 14 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NORTH OF
20N THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, BUT 8 TO 9 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
PERSIST FROM 07N TO 20N WEST OF 120W IN A MIX OF THE DECAYING NW
SWELL AND SHORTER-PERIOD NE WAVE GENERATED BY TRADE WIND FLOW.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF 30N AND EAST OF 140W BY WED ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. THE LARGE SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT WHICH WILL REACH FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO
13N140W BY LATE FRI. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 15 FT NEAR 30N AS THE
SWELL SHIFTS EASTWARD.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N111W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 08N111W TO 11N130W AND TO BEYOND 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 13N AND
EAST OF 105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE STORM WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WATERS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PENINSULA. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS
INDICATE THAT MODERATE NW-N WINDS ARE FOUND IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW-N WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM WATERS,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC WILL
DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE THIS MORNING, BUT GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THU.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH SAT. FARTHER NORTH,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA LATE THU THROUGH SAT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FRI. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE THU THROUGH SAT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SWELL AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS GENERATED FROM THE
STORM-FORCE GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE AFFECTING
THE WATERS OFF GUATEMALA BEYOND 90 NM. THIS IS OCCURRING MAINLY
WEST OF 93W. FARTHER EAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY GAP
WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS
IN S SWELL ARE PREVALENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COLOMBIA, PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PULSE EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF
THE GULF OF FONSECA AND SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
WED. OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA, EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO
NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH WED AS A SIGNIFICANT STORM
FORCE WIND EVENT CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ROUGH
SEAS WILL EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD TO WELL OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR
AND GUATEMALA TODAY INTO WED AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING LARGE NW SWELL
AND STRONG WINDS IN THE FAR NW WATERS.
A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE NE WATERS
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC,
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.
IN THE EASTERN WATERS, A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
NORTH OF 09N AND BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. FARTHER WEST, A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 119W IN THE TRADE WATERS, PRODUCING A
FEW SHOWERS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO
20N AND BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. MEANWHILE, MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL SOUTH OF 07N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE EAST OF 110W WILL BE
THE PLUME OF WINDS AND SWELL GENERATED BY THE STORM-FORCE WIND
EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS EAST OF 110W FROM 02N TO 14N THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
OTHER IMPACTS TO SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N LATER IN THE WEEK. STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT.
DELGADO
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