515
AXPZ20 KNHC 120905
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0855 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NE GULF OF AMERICA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GALES WITH WIND
SPEEDS TO 40 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG TO GALE-
FORCE WINDS EXTEND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 09N AND
WEST TO 103W. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING AROUND 16 FT (5 M) AND
ROUGH SEAS EXTEND SOUTH TO 05N AND WEST TO 107W. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFT EASTWARD IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT PULSES TO GALE-FORCE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE, DECREASING BELOW 8 FT FRI NIGHT.
LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY: A COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER, AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR
WATERS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 20N INTO SAT. LARGE NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 12 FT
AND WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER
THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N FROM LATE TODAY INTO SAT. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 17 FT THU. ROUGH SEAS WILL REACH SOUTH TO
10N AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRI INTO SAT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N98W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 08N98W TO 09N120W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO
15N AND EAST OF 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS POSITIONED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUPPORTS GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM WATERS, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GALE-FORCE N WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE INTO THU NIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ACCOMPANY THESE GALES DOWNSTREAM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE FRI AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. FARTHER NORTH, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
LATE THU THROUGH SAT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE SAT INTO
EARLY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 12 FT WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE THU INTO SAT, BEFORE
SUBSIDING SUN.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
BASIN. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULT IN FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR OFFSHORE
WATERS, CAPTURED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. FARTHER
WEST, A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
PRODUCING SEAS TO 13 FT AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS IN
THE WATERS OFF GUATEMALA BEYOND 60 NM.
THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA. MEANWHILE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS IN S SWELL
ARE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA,
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PULSE EACH NIGHT
AND MORNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. OFFSHORE OF
GUATEMALA, EXPECT ROUGH SEAS THROUGH FRI AS GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT CONTINUES IN THE NEARBY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING LARGE NW SWELL
AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION TODAY.
IN THE EASTERN WATERS, A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS SHOW
THAT A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF
107W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 8-14 FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE FAR WESTERN WATERS CONTINUE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
REGION. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE FOUND NORTH OF 23N AND WEST OF 130W. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 124W IN THE TRADE WATERS SUSTAINS MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 20N AND
BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE PRESENT. ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND
SUSTAINS MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE AREA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, THE WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LARGE
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL SUBSIDE WITH SEAS DECREASING BELOW 8 FT FRI.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL THEN PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ INTO THE WEEKEND.
DELGADO
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