951
AXPZ20 KNHC 121432
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NE GULF OF AMERICA, ALONG WITH 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TOGETHER CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALES
WITH WIND SPEEDS TO 40 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AS
OBSERVED BY A SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM LAST EVENING.
STRONG TO GALE- FORCE WINDS EXTEND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO 10N AND WEST TO 100W. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING
AROUND 14 FT (4.5 M) AND ROUGH SEAS EXTEND SOUTH TO 02N AND WEST
TO 110W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT PULSES TO
GALE-FORCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE, DECREASING BELOW 8 FT FRI
NIGHT.
LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY: A COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION, CURRENTLY NEAR 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NORTH
OF 20N INTO SAT. LARGE NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 12 FT AND WIND
SPEEDS TO NEAR GALE- FORCE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS
NORTH OF 25N FROM LATE TODAY INTO SAT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK
AROUND 17 FT THU. ROUGH SEAS WILL REACH SOUTH TO 10N AND THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRI INTO SAT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N90W TO 06N105W. THE
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 06N105W TO 09N115W TO BEYOND 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 05N TO 08N EAST OF
83W, FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W TO 115W, AND FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 105W AND 110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND NEAR
28N120W. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
DOWNSTREAM WATERS, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GALE-FORCE N WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE INTO THU NIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ACCOMPANY THESE GALES DOWNSTREAM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE FRI AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. FARTHER NORTH, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
LATE THU THROUGH SAT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE SAT INTO
EARLY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 12 FT WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE THU INTO SAT, BEFORE
SUBSIDING SUN.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
BASIN. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULT IN FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR OFFSHORE
WATERS, CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS.
FARTHER WEST, A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
IS PRODUCING SEAS TO 12 FT AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS
IN THE WATERS OFF GUATEMALA BEYOND 60 NM.
THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA. MEANWHILE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS IN S SWELL
ARE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA,
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PULSE EACH NIGHT
AND MORNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. OFFSHORE OF
GUATEMALA, EXPECT ROUGH SEAS THROUGH FRI AS GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT CONTINUES IN THE NEARBY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING LARGE NW SWELL
AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION TODAY.
EAST OF 110W, AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS SHOW THAT
A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS NORTH OF 05N. SEAS IN THESE WATERS
ARE 8-12 FT. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 110W IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC
GAP WIND EVENT IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W TO 115W.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 125W IN THE TRADE WIND BELT
SUSTAINS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
SOUTH OF 20N AND BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT. A 1012 MB OCCLUDED LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 27N137W, SUPPORTING FRESH WINDS A LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS IN THE VICINITY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
AND SUSTAINS MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE AREA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, THE WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LARGE
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL SUBSIDE WITH SEAS DECREASING BELOW 8 FT FRI.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL THEN PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ INTO THE WEEKEND.
CHRISTENSEN
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