891
AXPZ20 KNHC 130333
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0255 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF AMERICA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. IN ADDITION, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 10N AND WEST TO 100W. SEAS
ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING AROUND 12 FT (4 M) AND ROUGH SEAS EXTEND
SOUTH TO 02N AND WEST TO 110W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BUT PULSES TO GALE-FORCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE,
DECREASING BELOW 8 FT FRI NIGHT.
LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 30N133W TO 26N140W AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NORTH OF 20N INTO SAT.
LARGE NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 12 FT AND WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N FROM
LATE TODAY INTO SAT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 17 FT THU.
ROUGH SEAS WILL REACH SOUTH TO 10N AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRI INTO SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N103W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 08N103W TO 11N120W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 05N TO 12N AND EAST OF 97W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 11N AND WEST OF 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF GUERRERO.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GALE-FORCE N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE INTO THU NIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
ACCOMPANY THESE GALES DOWNSTREAM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH LATE FRI AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. FARTHER NORTH, A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE THU
THROUGH SAT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT INTO EARLY
SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 12 FT WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE THU INTO SAT, BEFORE
SUBSIDING SUN.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
6-8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING OFF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. MEANWHILE, SEAS TO 9 FT
ARE FOUND IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA DUE TO THE
WEAKENING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE. STRONG
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PULSE EACH NIGHT
AND MORNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. OFFSHORE OF
GUATEMALA, EXPECT ROUGH SEAS THROUGH FRI AS GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT CONTINUES IN THE NEARBY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING LARGE NW SWELL
AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
IN THE REGION.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE WATERS DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 10N AND 20N. MODERATE TO
FRESH SE-S WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EVIDENT SOUTH OF 07N. IN THE
EASTERN WATERS, MODERATE NE-E WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT ARE
OCCURRING DUE TO THE WEAKENING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE AREA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, THE WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LARGE
SOUTHERLY SWELL IS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT, AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY
NORTHERLY SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL THEN PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ INTO THE WEEKEND.
DELGADO
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