515
AXPZ20 KNHC 130905
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0855 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUPPORTS STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING AROUND 12 FT (4 M).
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL
PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE, DECREASING BELOW
8 FT FRI NIGHT.
LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 28N133W TO 24N140W AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NORTH OF 20N INTO SAT. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LARGE NW SWELL IN
EXCESS OF 12 FT AND STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE
WATERS NORTH OF 25N TODAY INTO SAT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK
AROUND 16 FT THIS MORNING. ROUGH SEAS WILL REACH SOUTH TO 10N AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRI INTO SAT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W
TO 07N105W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 07N105W TO 09N125W TO BEYOND
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 04N TO 11N
AND EAST OF 99W AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 11N AND BETWEEN 105W AND
117W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 11N AND WEST OF
125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. ELSEWHERE OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GALE-FORCE N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS ACCOMPANY THESE GALES
DOWNSTREAM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE
FRI AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD. FARTHER NORTH, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY THROUGH SAT.
EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW GAP WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT INTO EARLY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG
NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 13 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY INTO SAT, BEFORE SUBSIDING SUN.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS IN THESE WATERS
ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
OCCURRING OFF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR BASED ON A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. MEANWHILE, SEAS TO 8 FT ARE FOUND
IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA DUE TO THE WEAKENING GAP
WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE. STRONG SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM
COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA,
EXPECT ROUGH SEAS THROUGH FRI AS GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT
CONTINUES IN THE NEARBY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING LARGE NW SWELL
AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
IN THE REGION.
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 22N115W DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 10N AND 20N. MODERATE TO
FRESH SE-S WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EVIDENT SOUTH OF 07N. IN THE
EASTERN WATERS, MODERATE NE-E WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE
OCCURRING DUE TO THE WEAKENING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE AREA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, THE WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LARGE
SOUTHERLY SWELL IS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT, AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY
NORTHERLY SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL THEN PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUSTAIN FRESHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
IN THE TRADE WATERS WEST OF 120W.
DELGADO
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