437
AXPZ20 KNHC 131504
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUPPORTS STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING AROUND 12 FT (4 M).
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL
PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE, DECREASING BELOW
8 FT FRI NIGHT.
LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 30N126W TO 22N135W AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NORTH OF 20N INTO SAT. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ARE AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LARGE
NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 12 FT AND STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N TODAY INTO SAT. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 16 FT THIS MORNING. ROUGH SEAS WILL REACH
SOUTH TO 10N AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRI
INTO SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N105W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 07N105W TO 10N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 06N TO 09N FROM 85W TO 100W,
AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. ELSEWHERE OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GALE-FORCE N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS ACCOMPANY THESE GALES
DOWNSTREAM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE
FRI AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD. FARTHER NORTH, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY THROUGH SAT.
EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW GAP WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT INTO EARLY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG
NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 13 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY INTO SAT, BEFORE SUBSIDING SUN.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS IN THESE WATERS
ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
OCCURRING OFF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR BASED ON AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS. MEANWHILE, SEAS TO 8 FT ARE FOUND IN THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA DUE TO THE WEAKENING GAP WIND EVENT
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE. STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM COSTA RICA TO
COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA,
EXPECT ROUGH SEAS THROUGH FRI AS GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT
CONTINUES IN THE NEARBY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING LARGE NW SWELL
AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
IN THE REGION.
A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 25N119W IS WEAKENING
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ASIDE FROM THE FRESH TO STRONG
NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT, MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING
8 TO 9 FT COVER THE REGION SOUTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 95W. EAST OF
120W, THIS DUE TO NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP
WIND EVENT, MIXED WITH COMPONENTS OF LONGER PERIOD NW AND SW
SWELL. WEST OF 120W THIS PRIMARILY NW SWELL. MODERATE SEAS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE AREA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, THE WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL THEN PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, THE
LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND MIXES WITH SHORTER-PERIOD
WIND WAVES GENERATED BY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY LARGE NW SWELL NORTH OF 29N AND EAST
OF 130W.
CHRISTENSEN
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