769
AXPZ20 KNHC 132038
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUPPORTS STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING AROUND 12 FT (4 M).
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL
PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE, DECREASING BELOW
8 FT FRI NIGHT.
LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 30N125W TO 22N134W AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NORTH OF 20N INTO SAT. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ARE AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LARGE
NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 12 FT AND STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N TODAY INTO SAT. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 15 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL
REACH SOUTH TO 10N AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
LATE FRI INTO SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N105W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 07N105W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W TO 105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26N118W PREVAILS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE OUT OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING
STRONG TO GALE- FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
ROUGH SEAS ACCOMPANY THESE GALES DOWNSTREAM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE FRI AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. FARTHER NORTH, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
LATE TODAY THROUGH SAT, BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS
TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL TO THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FRI
AND SAT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW GAP WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT INTO EARLY SUN.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING OFF GUATEMALA AND
EL SALVADOR BASED ON AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS.
MEANWHILE, SEAS TO 8 FT ARE FOUND IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA DUE TO THE WEAKENING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EVIDENT ELSEWHERE. STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO SAT. OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA, EXPECT ROUGH
SEAS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT CONTINUES IN
THE NEARBY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING LARGE NW SWELL
AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
IN THE REGION.
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 26N119W IS
WEAKENING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ASIDE FROM THE FRESH
TO STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT, MOSTLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. WAVE
HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 9 FT COVER THE REGION SOUTH OF 15N AND WEST
OF 95W. EAST OF 120W, THIS IS DUE TO NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT, MIXED WITH COMPONENTS OF LONGER
PERIOD NW AND SW SWELL. WEST OF 120W THIS PRIMARILY NW SWELL.
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE AREA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, THE WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMISH THROUGH FRI. FRESH SW WINDS WILL FLOW INTO
THE MONSOON TROUGH FRI AND SAT, BETWEEN 90W AND 100W, SUPPORTING
SEAS TO 8 FT. LOOKING AHEAD, THE LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS IT MOVES INTO THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC AND MIXES WITH SHORTER-PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED BY
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE
WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY
LARGE NW SWELL NORTH OF 29N AND EAST OF 130W.
CHRISTENSEN
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