311
AXPZ20 KNHC 140333
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUPPORTS STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING AROUND 12 FT (4 M). WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TONIGHT AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH
SAT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE, DECREASING BELOW 8 FT FRI
NIGHT.
LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 30N122W TO 17N138W AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NORTH OF 20N INTO SAT.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LARGE NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 12 FT AND STRONG WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N TODAY INTO SAT.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 16 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. ROUGH
SEAS WILL REACH SOUTH TO 10N AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATE FRI INTO SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 07N103W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 07N103W TO 10N125W AND TO BEYOND 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 05N TO 11N AND EAST
OF 100W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE, ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND WEAK
SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 25N119W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW-N
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO OFF CABO CORRIENTES. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING
STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
ROUGH SEAS ACCOMPANY THESE GALES DOWNSTREAM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE FRI AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. FARTHER NORTH, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT, BRINGING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
SEAS TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL TO THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
FRI AND SAT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT INTO EARLY
SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING FRESH NW
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN
IS FORCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-8 FT.
MEANWHILE, SEAS TO 8 FT ARE STILL OCCURRING IN THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA DUE TO THE WEAKENING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE. STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PRESENT IN THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO SAT. OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA, EXPECT ROUGH
SEAS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT CONTINUES IN
THE NEARBY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING LARGE NW SWELL
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT IN THE REGION.
A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 25N119W IS
WEAKENING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ASIDE FROM THE
MAINLY FRESH NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT, MOSTLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. WAVE
HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 9 FT COVER THE REGION SOUTH OF 15N AND WEST
OF 95W. THIS IS DUE TO NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC
GAP WIND EVENT, MIXED WITH COMPONENTS OF LONGER PERIOD NW AND SW
SWELL. WEST OF 120W, THESE SEAS ARE PRIMARILY NW SWELL. MODERATE
SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE AREA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, THE WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMISH THROUGH FRI. FRESH SW WINDS WILL FLOW INTO
THE MONSOON TROUGH FRI AND SAT, BETWEEN 90W AND 100W, SUPPORTING
SEAS TO 8 FT. LOOKING AHEAD, THE LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS IT MOVES INTO THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC AND MIXES WITH SHORTER-PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED BY
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE
WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY
LARGE NW SWELL NORTH OF 29N AND EAST OF 130W.
DELGADO
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