235
AXPZ20 KNHC 141504
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 30N120W TO 20N132W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NORTH OF 20N
INTO SAT. RECENT DATA FROM ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES AND SOFAR
DRIFTING BUOYS INDICATE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH COMBINED SEAS UP TO
15 FT FOLLOW THE FRONT, AND ACROSS THE AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROUGHLY GUADALUPE ISLAND TO 18N140W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASSES ALSO CONFIRMED MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ROUGH SEAS WILL REACH SOUTH TO 10N AND THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY INTO SAT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N100W TO 07N110W.
THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 07N110W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATELY STRONG 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. FRESH NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS REACH UP
TO 300 NM FROM THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. FARTHER
NORTH, THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
IS APPROACHING GUADALUPE ISLAND, FOLLOWED BY LONG-PERIOD NW
SWELL TO 8 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, WITH 4
TO 6 FT SEAS OFF MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS AND 1 TO 3 FT IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM UNTIL SAT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.
FARTHER NORTH, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH SAT, BRINGING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL TO THE WATERS
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TODAY AND SAT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG
SW GAP WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT INTO EARLY SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING FRESH NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED NORTH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS IN THESE WATERS
ARE 6-9 FT. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE
REST OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED
AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA, PANAMA
AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEAKEN, ALLOWING THE WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING LARGE NW SWELL
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT IN THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF THE IMPACTS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE, THE MAIN ISSUE IS FRESH SW WINDS IN THE DEEP TROPICS EAST
OF 100W, NORTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, FLOWING INTO THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE POSSIBLE WITH COMPONENTS OF NW AND SW
SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE
BASIN ELSEWHERE, PRIMARILY WITH NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE AREA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, FRESH SW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH
TODAY AND SAT, BETWEEN 90W AND 100W, SUPPORTING SEAS TO 8 FT.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS IT MOVES INTO THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND MIXES
WITH SHORTER- PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED BY MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY LARGE NW SWELL
NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 130W.
CHRISTENSEN
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