010
AXPZ20 KNHC 150307
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 30N119W TO 14N140W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY, BUT THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN THE LAST 12-24
HOURS. THE FRONT IS SLOWING DOWN BUT IS FORECAST TO KEEP MOVING
EASTWARD AND WEAKENING, LIKELY DISSIPATING SAT INTO SUN. MODERATE
TO FRESH N-NE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY.
SEAS ARE PEAKING AROUND 14 FT NORTH OF 28N AND BETWEEN 120W AND
130W. A BUOY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IS REPORTING 15 FT. THE ROUGH
SEAS HAVE REACHED THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND SAT, REACHING THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS SAT NIGHT. THESE SEAS WILL ALSO REACH 10N
IN THE WESTERN WATERS ON SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N102W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 06N102W TO 07N120W AND BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 11N AND EAST OF 99W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, SUPPORTING NW SWELL THAT IS PRODUCING
SEAS OF 8-14 FT NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. FARTHER SOUTH, A
WEAKENING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE TO
SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ACROSS
THE REGION. IN THE REST OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM UNTIL SAT
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD. FARTHER NORTH, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH SAT,
BRINGING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 14 FT IN
NW SWELL TO THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TONIGHT AND SAT.
EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW GAP WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT INTO EARLY SUN. LOOKING AHEAD,
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING FRESH NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUES TO
RELAX AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE
FOUND IN THE BASIN AND DOWNSTREAM WATERS. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE REST OF THE BASIN, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA, PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEAKEN, ALLOWING THE WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO DIMINISH TO NIGHT INTO SAT. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING LARGE NW SWELL
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT IN THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF THE IMPACTS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE, THE MAIN ISSUE IS FRESH SW WINDS IN THE DEEP TROPICS EAST
OF 100W, NORTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, FLOWING INTO THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE POSSIBLE WITH COMPONENTS OF NW AND SW
SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE
BASIN ELSEWHERE, PRIMARILY WITH NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE AREA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, FRESH SW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BETWEEN 90W AND 100W, SUPPORTING SEAS TO 8
FT. LOOKING AHEAD, THE LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS IT MOVES INTO THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND MIXES
WITH SHORTER- PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED BY MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY LARGE NW SWELL
NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 130W.
DELGADO
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