726
AXPZ20 KNHC 150927
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0855 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY: A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N119W TO 14N138W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE IT
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
SUPPORTS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, PEAKING AROUND 14 FT NORTH OF
26N AND BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY AN
ALTIMETER PASS AROUND 06Z. THE ROUGH SEAS HAVE REACHED THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
SOUTHWARD TODAY, REACHING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TONIGHT.
THESE SEAS WILL ALSO REACH 10N IN THE WESTERN WATERS LATER TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
10N91W TO 06N106W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 06N106W TO 08N122W
AND BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 05N TO 10N AND EAST OF 100W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF
GUADALUPE ISLAND, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, PEAKING
NEAR 13 FT, ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. MEANWHILE,
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
SUSTAINS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE REST OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD. FARTHER NORTH, A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY, BRINGING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
WINDS AND SEAS TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL TO THE WATERS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING FRESH NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS LATE MON INTO MIDWEEK. WINDS MAY PULSE TO STRONG
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
DOMINATES THE BASIN, SUPPORTING MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. WINDS WILL FRESHEN UP
BY MIDWEEK IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
05N.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING LARGE NW SWELL
FOLLOWING A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE REGION.
ASIDE FROM THE NW SWELL BEHIND STATIONARY FRONT DESCRIBED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH AROUND 10N91W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
EVIDENT EAST OF 100W, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT. IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE AREA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, FRESH SW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BETWEEN 90W AND 100W, SUPPORTING SEAS TO 9
FT. LOOKING AHEAD, THE LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS IT MOVES INTO THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND MIXES
WITH SHORTER-PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED BY MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY LARGE NW SWELL
NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 130W. LOOKING AHEAD, A BUILDING RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN WATERS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE TRADE WATERS WEST OF 120W BY MIDWEEK.
DELGADO
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