274
AXPZ20 KNHC 152124
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2120 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO OFF PUNTA EUGENIA TO
16N130W, WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO 15N140W. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE IT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE
PASS CONFIRMED 8 TO 12 FT SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT, DUE LARGELY TO
NW SWELL. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL 8 FT OR GREATER EXTENDS
FROM NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO TO 13N130W TO 10N140W. THE ROUGH SEAS
HAVE REACHED THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TODAY, REACHING THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS TONIGHT. THE AREA OF 8 FT OR GREATER SEAS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD AND REACH FROM 05N TO 20N WEST OF 110W BY SUN NIGHT,
THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N90W TO 07N105W.
THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 07N105W TO 06N125W AND BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 92W AND 97W, AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE NW SWELL DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION, A SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM 18 UTC
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE SAME PASS INDICATED MODERATE
TO FRESH SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, BUT LIGHT BREEZES AND 1 TO 2 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF. FARTHER SOUTH, THE SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS
SHOWED FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING, BRINGING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
WINDS AND SEAS TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL TO THE WATERS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
FRESH NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE MON INTO MIDWEEK. WINDS MAY PULSE TO STRONG IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
DOMINATES THE BASIN, SUPPORTING MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. WINDS WILL FRESHEN UP BY MIDWEEK IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF 05N.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING LARGE NW SWELL
FOLLOWING A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE REGION.
ASIDE FROM THE NW SWELL BEHIND STATIONARY FRONT DESCRIBED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION, AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. A
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM 1630 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG
S TO SW WINDS ARE FLOWING INTO THIS AREA, AND A CONCURRENT
ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED 6 TO 9 FT SEAS SOUTHWARD TO THE EQUATOR,
MIXING WITH NW SWELL. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE AREA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, THE FRESH SW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BETWEEN 90W AND 100W, SUPPORTING SEAS TO 9
FT. LOOKING AHEAD, THE LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS IT MOVES INTO THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND MIXES
WITH SHORTER-PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED BY MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY LARGE NW SWELL
NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 130W. LOOKING AHEAD, A BUILDING RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN WATERS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE TRADE WATERS WEST OF 120W BY MIDWEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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