379
AXPZ20 KNHC 231943
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1900 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N84W TO 07N86W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07N86W TO 10N121W TO BEYOND 06.5N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 77W AND 81.5W, FROM 07N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W,
FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 114W AND 123W, AND FROM 06N TO 10N
BETWEEN 123W AND 134.5W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA NEAR
35N133W THROUGH 30N125W TO OFFSHORE SW MEXICO. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF
20N. MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N INCLUDING
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND CABO CORRIENTES, AS WELL AS IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH TROUGHING ANALYZED OVER WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
AND OFFSHORE SW AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AWAY FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-10 FT OVER THE WATERS W OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN LARGE NW SWELL. SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE. OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, SEAS OF 2-5 FT ARE NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION AND
1-3 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RIDGING WILL PERSISTS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH
THE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS FROM 17N TO 20N PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, LOCALLY STRONG NEAR CABO CORRIENTES.
SIMILAR WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
INTO MID-WEEK. LARGE NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THROUGH MON
NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. NEW NW SWELL MAY ARRIVE NEXT
WEEKEND. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N GAP WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY MON BEFORE
DIMINISHING. GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, POSSIBLE REACHING GALE-FORCE THU AND THU NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 90W. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE, EXCEPT TO 6 FT NEAR THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE OVER AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION THIS WEEK. MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA NEAR
35N133W THROUGH 30N125W TO OFFSHORE SW MEXICO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE ITCZ
TO 20N AND W OF 110W PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. NW
SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS, WITH ROUGH
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT COVERING THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TO
07N128W. MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE ITCZ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS PER CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND AS DESCRIBED ABOVE LEADING TO LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
ROUGH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER IN NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE AREA, COVERING MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 07N AND W
OF 109W TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE EARLY THIS
WEEK. A NEW SET OF NW MAY ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N AND W OF 110W THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LEWITSKY
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