838
AXPZ20 KNHC 280217
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF AMERICA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO GALE FORCE GAP
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A PLUME OF
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL
EXPAND DOWNSTREAM TO 11N99W BY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE FRI NIGHT. AFTERWARDS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
FURTHER DIMINISH SAT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N94W TO 09N111W TO
09N125W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
08N TO 16N BETWEEN 108W AND 121W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN
UPCOMING GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DISCUSSED
ABOVE, MODERATE NW WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF TO NEAR
CABO CORRIENTES. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS
ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, AND 2-3
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI NIGHT, RESULTING IN ROUGH TO VERY SEAS.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC INTO SAT NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. A SURFACE TROUGH
MAY IMPACT THE WATERS NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO MON. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENTS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION, WITH
MODERATE WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE MODERATE
WINDS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-6
FT RANGE IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELLS, REACHING 7 FT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SUN. MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE FORECAST,
SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION DUE TO THE FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS, AND OFFSHORE GUATEMALA TO LOCALLY ROUGH THROUGH
FRI DUE TO A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NORTH OF 20N AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH TO 20N AND WEST OF 110W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO 7-9 FT COMBINED SEAS OVER THESE WATERS, ASSISTED
BY A COMPONENT OF LONGER- PERIOD NW SWELL. MODERATE OR WEAKER
BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS IN A MIX OF SWELL ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS IN THE TRADE
WIND BELT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH FRI AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WITH
ROUGH SEAS WILL ARRIVE FRI AND INTO WEEKEND NORTH OF 25N WITH
SEAS TO 10 FT. ANOTHER LARGE SET OF NW SWELL MAY ARRIVE TO THE
NW WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AL
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