611
AXPZ20 KNHC 281515
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1505 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
TO GALE-FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH SAT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N93W TO 11N115W TO
10N122W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N122W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 03N TO 08N AND EAST OF 95W, AND FROM 08N TO 17N AND BETWEEN
102W AND 120W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 05N TO 10N AND
WEST OF 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN
ONGOING GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS
ARE DOMINATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NW-N WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MODERATE N WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF CABO CORRIENTES. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, RESULTING IN ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO SAT NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING. A SURFACE TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE WATERS NEAR
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND, WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO MON. NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES
TO SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-8 FT. FARTHER WEST,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING
IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA DUE TO THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MEANWHILE, A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF 05N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SUN. MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE FORECAST,
SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION DUE TO THE FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS, AND OFFSHORE GUATEMALA TO LOCALLY ROUGH TODAY
DUE TO A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NORTH OF 20N AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND LOWER PRESSURE WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
NORTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH TO 20N AND WEST OF 110W. THE
TRADE WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 7-8 FT COMBINED SEAS OVER THESE
WATERS, ASSISTED BY A COMPONENT OF LONGER-PERIOD NW SWELL.
MODERATE OR WEAKER BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS IN A MIX OF SWELL
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 7-8 FT SEAS IN THE TRADE
WIND BELT WILL DECREASE TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA WEAKENS. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WITH ROUGH SEAS WILL ARRIVE
TODAY AND INTO WEEKEND NORTH OF 25N WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. ANOTHER
LARGE SET OF NW SWELL MAY ARRIVE TO THE NW WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
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